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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --385 FXUS65 KABQ 072034 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The intense heat will continue for one more day Saturday but be a touch cooler compared to yesterday and today as high pressure moves a little more east. A storm of two in far northeast areas along the backdoor front near to Colorado line could become strong to severe. The backdoor front surges through eastern areas come Sunday morning with higher moisture and much cooler temperatures behind it. This, along with a disturbance moving in from the southwest, will set the stage for widespread showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain with a high threat for flash flooding on the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. Another round of storms is possible for northern and eastern areas Monday along with cooler temperatures. High pressure then develops over the region Tuesday reducing storm coverage and heating temperatures back up. High pressure intensifies overhead mid next week resulting in little if any storm coverage and very hot temperatures once again.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A significant uptick in convection today as mid-level moisture has worked north over the area round the upper high circulation, which is moving eastward over TX. There has been a mix of wet/dry storms so far with a number of dry lightning strikes across western and northern NM, but no notable wind gusts so far. instability is most notable across eastern NM, with the best shear across the far northeast where a storm or two may become strong to severe through the afternoon hours. KABX radar shows outflow from convection over the western mountains moving east toward the middle RGV and will likely bring gusty winds into the Albuquerque Metro between 3-5PM with some virga. This round of convection is completely driven by daytime heating and will follow a normal diurnal downtrend later this evening. Drier air is forecast to work around the upper high circulation over western and into central NM Saturday, bringing a downtick in coverage of convection. The best chances on Saturday afternoon/evening will be in the south central mountains and across far northeast NM where a weak backdoor front will poke in and help provide added moisture and shear. A storm or two may become strong to severe on Saturday afternoon/evening near the CO border, but otherwise strong/erratic wind gusts and very little measurable rainfall is expected with Saturday`s crop. Saturday will be another hot one with above normal high temperatures, but just below advisory threshold. The backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday night, bringing in higher surface dewpoint temperatures and more low level moisture and setting the stage for Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A backdoor front will be surging down the eastern plains and highlands Sunday morning banked up along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Higher moisture will be in place behind this front with dewpoints in the 50s across the plains and near 60 along the TX state line. In the upper levels the remnants of the Baja CA upper low will be moving north along the AZ/NM border. This setup will result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms along the east slopes of the central mountain chain come the early afternoon. Thus, a higher risk of flash flooding on the HPCC burn scar is expected Sunday afternoon and early evening. Some virga showers and dry storms could develop across the higher terrain of central and western NM thank to the mid level moisture but dry low levels east of the upper level disturbance. Storms across northeast NM look to grow upscale and develop into a MCS during the evening hours moving east into West Texas during the overnight hours. Damaging wind gusts and some large hail look to be the main threats from this. Some additional storms could be possible across the northeast highlands Sunday night due to the upslope flow in the wake of the departing MCS. The outflow from the MCS will surge west overnight and bring an east wind and higher surface moisture to the ABQ and Santa Fe metros early Monday morning. Thus will result in the cooler temperatures of the week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. There is a moderate to high uncertainty to Monday afternoon`s forecast. First, the NAM holds a tail of the upper level trough back across north central NM this doesn`t mix out the surface moisture across north central NM west of the Sangre de Cristo mountains as quickly resulting in some showers and storms to develop. The GFS and ECMWF have the upper level trough more consolidated over northeast NM and southeast CO with the drier westerly flow behind it across western and central NM resulting in little if any storm coverage. Second, the coverage of showers and storms in northeast NM could be lower than currently forecasted. There will be good lift and dynamics in the area due to being in the vicinity of the upper level trough. However, lots of cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and low instability will be present in the wake of Sunday evening`s MCS. The question will be if the atmosphere can recover enough to produce another round of showers and storms Monday afternoon and early evening. If that occurs, the motion of this activity will be quicker to the east and southeast as the upper level disturbance/low departs east to the southern plains. The story beginning Tuesday returns once again to the hotter temperatures and eventually extreme heat. Upper level high pressure redevelops over the state Tuesday at around 591 dm strengthening to as much as 596 to 598 dm come Thursday! For comparison, the upper high yesterday evening was analyzed at 593 dm. This will result in temperatures in the low to mid 90s for northern and central NM to around 100 for southern NM Tuesday increasing to upper 90s to near 100 for northern and central NM and mid 100 for southern NM Thursday. Some guidance is showing highs around 100 degrees at Farmington and Albuquerque on Thursday with NBM probabilities around 20 to 30%. Roswell could exceed 105 degrees with NBM probabilities around 70%. In other news, heat advisories will probably be in play once again come Thursday if guidance continues showing the upper high this strong. The strong subsidence beneath the high and lack of mid level moisture will result in little if any shower and storm development over the higher terrain.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for potential MVFR vsby limitations at KROW late this afternoon or early evening due to blowing dust from strong/erratic gusts associated with virga. Virga showers and dry thunderstorms will be scattered later this afternoon will produce strong/erratic wind gusts across much of the area and could impact any or all TAF sites with gust to around 40kts fairly common. There is some potential for stronger and dangerous gusts in excess of 50kts in/near some of this activity. && .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the next seven days. A mix of wet/dry storms have developed across much of the area today, with dry lightning strikes noted across much of western and northern NM. Expect a downtick Saturday as dry air overtakes much of central and western NM, where hot, dry and unstable conditions will reside. A backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday night and replenish moisture for a round of wetting storms on Sunday and Monday, which will include the northern mountains. An upper level ridge will poke north over NM on Tue/Wed/Thu of next week, bringing increasingly hot, dry and unstable conditions with worsening humidity recovery. A Pacific trough/low will approach next Friday, bringing some wind and chances for wetting storms to the area.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 61 97 58 91 / 10 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 46 91 45 89 / 10 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 56 91 55 85 / 20 5 5 20 Gallup.......................... 50 92 52 85 / 20 0 5 10 El Morro........................ 55 88 56 80 / 20 5 5 20 Grants.......................... 52 92 55 86 / 20 0 5 20 Quemado......................... 55 89 56 81 / 20 5 10 20 Magdalena....................... 63 90 64 84 / 20 10 10 30 Datil........................... 59 88 61 80 / 20 10 10 30 Reserve......................... 49 92 51 88 / 20 5 10 20 Glenwood........................ 66 96 66 92 / 10 5 10 20 Chama........................... 48 84 46 83 / 10 5 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 64 90 63 84 / 20 10 10 40 Pecos........................... 60 91 57 82 / 20 20 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 85 51 80 / 20 20 10 60 Red River....................... 49 76 46 74 / 20 20 20 70 Angel Fire...................... 44 80 41 77 / 20 20 20 80 Taos............................ 52 90 50 86 / 20 10 10 50 Mora............................ 54 86 51 78 / 20 20 20 70 Espanola........................ 59 96 59 92 / 20 10 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 63 91 61 85 / 20 10 10 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 95 59 89 / 20 5 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 96 69 91 / 20 5 10 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 98 66 92 / 20 0 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 100 65 94 / 20 0 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 98 68 92 / 20 0 10 20 Belen........................... 61 100 64 94 / 20 0 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 66 99 66 94 / 20 0 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 60 100 62 94 / 20 0 10 20 Corrales........................ 66 99 67 94 / 20 0 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 62 100 64 94 / 20 0 10 20 Placitas........................ 66 96 66 89 / 20 5 10 30 Rio Rancho...................... 67 98 67 93 / 20 0 10 20 Socorro......................... 66 101 69 95 / 20 5 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 63 83 / 20 5 10 30 Tijeras......................... 62 91 62 86 / 20 5 10 30 Edgewood........................ 59 92 58 87 / 20 5 10 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 94 55 88 / 20 5 10 40 Clines Corners.................. 58 90 56 81 / 20 10 10 50 Mountainair..................... 59 91 59 85 / 20 5 10 30 Gran Quivira.................... 60 92 59 86 / 20 10 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 65 94 66 90 / 20 10 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 61 85 61 82 / 30 30 20 40 Capulin......................... 56 86 53 73 / 20 50 30 60 Raton........................... 55 90 54 79 / 20 30 20 60 Springer........................ 56 92 56 81 / 20 20 20 60 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 56 79 / 20 20 20 60 Clayton......................... 65 93 59 77 / 30 20 40 40 Roy............................. 61 92 58 76 / 30 20 20 60 Conchas......................... 67 101 64 84 / 20 10 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 63 98 62 84 / 20 10 20 50 Tucumcari....................... 68 101 63 85 / 20 10 20 40 Clovis.......................... 68 100 66 91 / 10 5 30 40 Portales........................ 68 101 66 93 / 10 5 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 68 101 64 91 / 20 5 20 40 Roswell......................... 73 103 73 98 / 10 5 10 20 Picacho......................... 63 96 66 91 / 20 20 20 40 Elk............................. 62 92 63 90 / 20 30 20 40-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219-234-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11