-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
889
FXUS65 KABQ 061121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Intense heat will take hold of the entire region today with record
high temperatures possible in a few areas. Folks are encouraged to
take the necessary precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses.
Heat is one of the leading weather-related killers in the United
States. A few gusty showers and storms may develop over portions of
eastern NM later this afternoon. Wind gusts may exceed 50 mph with
brief rain and areas of blowing dust. High temperatures will cool
a degree or two Friday and Saturday but it will remain very hot.
Even greater coverage of showers and storms with strong winds,
brief rain, and blowing dust is expected on Friday and Saturday. A
significant influx of moisture may arrive Sunday and Monday with
the potential for more widespread showers and storms with locally
heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also cool closer to normal for
early June by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A backdoor cold front will enter from the northeast early this
morning, ushering in gusty north winds. Initially, the airmass won`t
be more moist than the one currently in place, but moisture
advection will occur late morning into the afternoon as surface
winds turn more easterly. Meanwhile, a 592dm high will shift
directly over central NM this afternoon. Subsidence of this dry
airmass will help temperatures climb to the highest values of the
season thus far and threaten record highs in many areas. The ABQ
Sunport may have its 2nd earliest 100F day on record, but
probabilistic guidance suggests this is unlikely (<15% chance).
Regardless, it will be very hot and the risk of heat related illness
will be high for most lower elevation locations. Despite subsidence
from the ridge, models are indicating that isolated convection will
develop over the high terrain and in eastern NM during the afternoon
hours. Inverted V soundings and DCAPE upwards of 1200J/kg suggests
the potential for dry microbursts over the western and northern
mountains. Some wetting rainfall is possible in the east-central
plains during the evening hours, but only a few hi-res models are
hinting at this.

In the absence of strong westerly winds, the surface moisture across
eastern NM will have no problem sloshing to the west through the
gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday night. A few strong
gusts are possible in east Albuquerque and near Santa Fe as it
spills into the Rio Grande Valley, but the relatively weak sfc
pressure gradient does not suggest persistent sustained winds. This
moisture will provide the fuel for more scattered convection on
Friday afternoon. Once again, dry microbursts are possible as storms
move to the east/northeast off the high terrain into the lower
elevations during the late afternoon/evening hours. Short-lived
convective showers and storms will be capable of producing wind
gusts upwards of 60mph everywhere, including along the Rio Grande
Valley. While 500mb heights will be similar to Thursday`s, slightly
higher dewpoints and increased cloud cover will keep temps a few
degrees below Thursday`s highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

High-based showers and storms across central and eastern NM Friday
evening will taper off thru midnight with widespread debris clouds
lingering thru Saturday morning. Min temps will be around 10 to 15F
above normal for early June with a lack of radiational cooling after
near-record heat. These early morning warm temps will set the stage
for another very hot day with near-record highs once again Saturday.
A 591dm H5 high centroid will still be centered over central NM,
which is a tad weaker than previous days. A weak shortwave trough
moving thru central CO on the northern periphery of this upper
high will provide lift for showers and storms over the northern
mts and northeast NM by Saturday afternoon. Inverted-V soundings
are still expected with high DCAPE and thus potential for more
strong downburst wind gusts.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will trigger a large cluster of
storms from the Front Range into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles
Saturday night. Much deeper moisture in this area will be forced
southwest into northeast NM along a potent convective outflow. A
significantly better influx of moisture expected over eastern NM for
Sunday will set the stage for greater coverage of showers and storms
with locally heavy rainfall, especially from the Sangre de Cristo
Mts eastward across the plains. Storm motions will be slow given the
proximity of the H5 high center. Convection that fires up over the
region Sunday may develop into a more organized area of rainfall
Sunday night as a well-defined upper level wave drifts northeast
into NM from AZ.

Forecast confidence decreases Monday given uncertainty with the
evolution of the upper level wave drifting thru the southern
Rockies. Models have been all over the place with this wave while
low level moisture continues to slosh back and forth across the
eastern half of NM thru Tuesday. The greater certainty is that max
temps will fortunately trend much cooler and there will be at
least some chances for showers and storms over parts of the area
both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A backdoor front will move in from the northeast within the next
couple hours, with a few strong northerly gusts in its wake. Winds
behind the front will turn more easterly during the late
morning/early afternoon as the boundary stalls out. Isolated
convection will develop over the high terrain of western and
northern NM this afternoon, producing erratic and gusty winds up
to 50kts near terminals such as KAXX and KLVS. A few stronger
storms with wetting rainfall may develop across the east-central
plains this evening. A brief gusty east wind is possible at KABQ
and KSAF tonight, especially if convection across the east-central
plains and TX Panhandle does manifest.

Furthermore, the very hot temperatures this afternoon will make
density altitude a consideration for aviation operations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Isolated, mostly dry, showers and storms will favor the high terrain
and east-central plains this afternoon. Increasing moisture will
result in more scattered convective activity tomorrow, with a mix of
dry and wet storms expected. Gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph are
possible with any convection that develops both today and tomorrow.
The chance of wetting rainfall increases Sunday and Monday as deeper
moisture arrives into the area. RH recoveries will trend better
during this time frame as well. This combined with the absence of
strong westerly winds will keep critical fire weather conditions at
bay through at least the next 7 days.

In addition, very hot temperatures will result in an increased risk
of heat related illness through the weekend. Heat risk will be
greatest today and tomorrow as highs soar to 10-15 degrees above
seasonal averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  58  97  59 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  93  47  92  48 /   0   0  10   5
Cuba............................  91  54  90  55 /   0   0  20  20
Gallup..........................  95  49  93  50 /   0   0  10  10
El Morro........................  90  54  88  56 /   0   5  30  20
Grants..........................  95  51  92  52 /   0   0  30  20
Quemado.........................  91  57  89  57 /  10  10  40  20
Magdalena.......................  92  64  90  65 /   0   5  40  30
Datil...........................  90  61  87  61 /  10  10  50  30
Reserve.........................  96  49  93  48 /  10  10  40  20
Glenwood........................ 100  66  98  65 /  10  10  30  20
Chama...........................  87  47  85  49 /   0   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  91  64  90  64 /   0   0  20  20
Pecos...........................  91  56  89  59 /  10  10  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  86  51  85  52 /  10   5  20  20
Red River.......................  79  45  80  47 /  10  10  30  20
Angel Fire......................  83  35  83  40 /  10   5  20  10
Taos............................  93  52  91  52 /   5   5  20  10
Mora............................  87  49  87  53 /  20  10  30  10
Espanola........................  99  60  96  61 /   5   0  20  10
Santa Fe........................  92  62  91  63 /   5   5  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  96  60  95  62 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  68  96  70 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  99  66  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  64 100  67 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  65  98  67 /   0   0  10  20
Belen........................... 101  60 100  63 /   0   0  20  20
Bernalillo...................... 100  64  99  67 /   0   0  10  20
Bosque Farms.................... 101  59 100  63 /   0   0  10  20
Corrales........................ 100  62  99  64 /   0   0  10  20
Los Lunas....................... 101  59 100  62 /   0   0  20  20
Placitas........................  97  65  96  67 /   0   0  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  99  66  98  67 /   0   0  10  20
Socorro......................... 103  68 100  69 /   0   5  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  59  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
Tijeras.........................  93  60  93  63 /   0   0  20  20
Edgewood........................  95  57  93  61 /   5   0  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  52  94  55 /   5   5  20  20
Clines Corners..................  91  55  89  58 /  10   5  20  20
Mountainair.....................  93  59  91  60 /   5   5  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  94  58  91  59 /   5   5  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  98  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  89  60  86  61 /  20  10  50  30
Capulin.........................  82  54  89  56 /  20  10  40  20
Raton...........................  89  54  92  55 /  20  10  30  10
Springer........................  91  55  93  56 /  20  10  40  10
Las Vegas.......................  90  55  90  57 /  10  10  30  20
Clayton.........................  87  60  96  65 /  10  10  20  20
Roy.............................  89  58  92  62 /  10  10  30  20
Conchas.........................  99  62 101  67 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  63  97  65 /  10  10  20  20
Tucumcari....................... 100  63 102  67 /  10  20  10  20
Clovis.......................... 102  67 100  68 /  10  30   5  20
Portales........................ 103  65 101  67 /   5  20   5  20
Fort Sumner..................... 101  66 100  67 /   5  10  10  20
Roswell......................... 106  73 103  73 /   0   5  10  10
Picacho.........................  99  65  96  65 /  10  10  40  20
Elk.............................  98  61  94  62 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ201-219-220-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16