Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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018 FXUS62 KILM 151423 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the Carolinas today with showers and thunderstorms possible as it slides through. Behind the front, high pressure will build in from the north and maintain control through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a coastal trough develops. && .UPDATE...
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Not really any major changes coming down the track at the 10 AM EDT forecast update. Latest observations indicate that the front is draped over the northern half of the local forecast area, spanning roughly from just north of Florence and Marion through just south of Elizabethtown and Wallace. Front will continue to drop southward towards the coast by this afternoon, where it will slow down. Despite lift from this front and the seabreeze expected to develop in a couple hours, storms this afternoon should be pretty isolated. Precipitable water does increase later today, but the moisture profiles in RAP13 soundings don`t look very convincing. Best forcing is far aloft above 300mb. Storms today will likely be outflow driven, with the seabreeze pinned closer to the coast. Northeast SC in particular may deal with more storms today than southeast NC. Best setups here include the CAPE and DCAPE. Storms today may produce some decent gusty winds. Not much helicity to work with, but considering the very potent CAPE in place, we may have quite the lightning show in some spots today. Alas, there`s a considerable cap above 700mb, and I`m skeptical of how the isolated activity is going to shape up today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overall high resolution guidance has come into better agreement with convection associated with a back door front this afternoon. It appears there will decent coverage late afternoon into early evening west to east from the Pee Dee region east to the coast. While it appears there will be a significant sea breeze...the extra convergence/lift provided by the front will be needed hence the orientation. Very warm highs expected today with good coverage of middle 90s...a little cooler along the beaches and just inland. Finally the severe threat looks limited if for nothing else coverage but downdraft cape values could get interesting noting the antecedent conditions. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will extend into the area from the north through the period while a cold front stalls south and east of the area. Dry weather is expected. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will extend into the area from the north through the period though there are indications a coastal trough could develop late in the week. Overall, little rainfall is expected though the coastal trough could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs each day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions currently in place. Some convection still expected this afternoon into early evening seemingly from Flo to the coastal sites. Although guidance isn`t necessarily more bullish with some 06 UTC guidance went ahead and added vcts to these sites. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Essentially light and variable winds most of the day will transition to a better defined east to northeasterly flow in the wake of a back door front later tonight. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet. Sunday through Wednesday...A generally easterly flow will remain in place through the period with high pressure to our north. Seas will run 2 to 3 feet with 4 ft seas possible at times hearer 20 miles out. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for east- and southeast-facing beaches tomorrow due to a southeasterly 2-3 ft swell and mainly for east-facing beaches on Sunday as an easterly swell takes over. Lingering swells and onshore winds should keep a moderate risk of rip currents going for mainly the east-facing beaches into early next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...SHK MARINE...ILM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM