004
FXUS65 KABQ 152039
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Warmer and somewhat drier air is starting to work into New Mexico
from the west, and temperatures are considerably higher than
yesterday in most northern and central parts of the state. Any
showers or thunderstorms that develop through the early evening
will be sparse and found in very far eastern parts of New Mexico.
Temperatures will be even hotter on Sunday with readings rising
close to record daily high values in some locations. Temperatures
will still be hot on Monday, but will reduce by a couple degrees
in most locations. Breezy to windy conditions will also start to
develop in the afternoons on Sunday and more-so on Monday.
Conditions will still be warm to hot on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
cooler air and more moisture will be working into New Mexico from
the east by late Wednesday and Thursday with chances for showers
and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure has moved over the western
half of the state while low-level moisture remaining from
yesterday`s upper low crossing remains over most areas. Td`s range
from near 40 along and west of the Continental Divide to 50s in
central NM to near 60F along the TX border. Fair weather cumulus has
begun to crop over the high terrain of central and western NM,
evident of this lower level moisture beginning to be scoured out by
drier westerly to southwesterly flow moving in. Any late afternoon
convection will favor a sharpening dry line feature over far eastern
NM however, most likely Curry and Roosevelt Counties by 5pm to 6pm.
Any of these cells has the potential to briefly become severe
producing large hail and severe winds before it tracks into TX. Some
of the hi-res CAMs are showing the current batch of cumulus over the
south-central mountains near Ruidoso developing into pulsy short
storm cells, and there is a slight chance a storm or two could
develop from this before 7pm MDT. If so, an outflow gust would be
possible into western Chaves County to Roswell.

After a calm night heading into Sunday morning, heat will be the
main concern Sunday afternoon. Dry southwesterly flow aloft will
strengthen with a troughing pattern moving into the western CONUS.
This will scour out low level moisture further, especially across
western NM and into the Rio Grande Valley. Southerly return flow
will keep low-level moisture lingering longer across the eastern
plains of NM, but some of this dry air will try to push into Chaves
County and Roswell. High temperatures will be in the 90s to low 100s
for all lower elevation areas of northern and central NM Sunday
afternoon. The question is whether the ABQ Metro and Roswell will
see highs reach their respective Heat Advisory thresholds. This will
depend on how much moisture in these valley locations can be scoured
out by the afternoon. Kept the forecast favoring these drier
scenarios allowing highs to creep up a few more degrees, compared to
the NAM MOS guidance which holds onto moisture longer and is
subsequently a few degrees cooler. Forecast high temperatures are
still borderline Heat Advisory and given the uncertainty regarding
the moisture scouring out, will let the overnight shift give one
more look at it. Otherwise, Sunday afternoon`s forecast may also
feature a few storms developing along a sharpening dry line feature
over far northeastern NM and Union County near Clayton. Any storm
that may develop here will track east to northeast toward CO and OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The pattern on Monday will be characterized by relatively strong
southwesterly flow over NM as an upper level low crosses ID and
weakens as it moves into MT. A lee-side surface low is also
modeled over eastern CO that will provide enough of a surface
gradient for breezy to windy conditions. A very slight reduction
in heights may keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler, but
still within 3 to 6 degrees of record highs in a few locations
Monday afternoon.

Monday`s northwestern U.S. wave will eject into Canada with
another dropping into Alberta upstream. The southwesterlies over
NM will reduce in speed some, but still remain relatively strong.
At the surface, the lee-side surface low looks to get overtaken by
a cold front sliding down the plains and just touching the
northeastern corner of NM by early evening. This will keep breezy
to locally windy conditions going over NM, particularly in eastern
areas during the day. By the evening and overnight, the
aforementioned front will move into more of the northeastern
quadrant of NM, spawning a few showers and thunderstorms.

The backdoor front will overtake more of eastern NM on Wednesday,
perhaps even going west of the Rio Grande by the afternoon. The
front will moisten the east and moderate temperatures in its wake
while fueling showers and thunderstorms. At this time the
southwesterlies aloft will weaken with just a gentle upstream
trough noted near the west coast.

Surface winds may veer more southeasterly in central and eastern
NM on Thursday, keeping moisture advection at work. This could
even produce widespread low stratus clouds early Thursday morning
that keep temperatures from warming as quickly in the eastern
half of the state. This might even stabilize the boundary layer
too much for storm development Thursday afternoon as the GFS is
advertising, but the leading (westernmost) edge of the moisture
near the Continental Divide may still be an area of opportunity
for convective initiation.

Southerly flow would look to keep deeper moisture in place over
NM, at least in the eastern half Friday into Saturday with some
potential spillover past the Rio Grande toward the Continental
Divide, but QPF is still advertised to be quite low during these
days. For now, isolated to scattered POPs are in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail today with skc turning into a batch of fair
weather cumulus most areas this afternoon. The exception will be a
few isolated thunderstorms producing erratic gusty winds over
portions of east-central and southeastern NM before they move into
TX late today b/w 22Z to 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Increasing fire weather potential through Tuesday as drier
southwesterly flow ticks up each day. Wind and humidity will be the
limiting factor Sunday as low-level moisture embedded within
southerly return flow holds onto the eastern plains. Drier
southwesterly flow advances through eastern NM Monday bringing area
wide critical humidity below 15 percent. While breezy conditions
will be present most areas, the strongest winds will focus through
the northeastern highlands and plains, aided by a deepening lee-side
low over eastern CO. This area, and west-central NM will be the
areas for potential critical fire weather conditions. However,
recent rainfall across northeastern NM will bring ERCs into question
for Monday. Tuesday`s fire weather potential has trended down since
yesterday, thanks to lower wind potential. However, elevated
conditions will be present most areas in the afternoon given the
continued dry southwesterly flow regime.

A strong cold front backing through eastern NM brings a sharp change
to the weather pattern. Cooler temperatures and replenished low
level moisture coupled with the northeasterly to easterly wind shift
will bring an end to critical fire weather concerns across eastern
NM. Chances for afternoon thunderstorms developing along the central
mountain chain also return Wednesday afternoon and evening. A strong
east canyon gap wind also looks likely at Santa Fe and ABQ sometime
Wednesday. Convection Wednesday will aid in pushing moisture further
west to the Continental Divide and the AZ border Thursday. No fire
weather concerns by this point given the abundant moisture, but
chances for afternoon thunderstorms should increase notably.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  95  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  90  42  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  53  90  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  47  92  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  52  89  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  50  93  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  55  91  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  62  93  60  92 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  59  90  55  86 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  47  94  45  89 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  58  97  60  93 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  47  84  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  63  89  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  58  90  57  88 /   0   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  49  85  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  47  77  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  40  81  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  49  90  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  50  87  50  84 /   0   5   0   0
Espanola........................  56  96  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  62  91  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  95  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  96  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  99  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  59 101  60  97 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  99  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  55 100  57  99 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  63 100  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  54 100  56  98 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  64  99  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  55 100  58  98 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  65  95  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  99  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  67 102  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  90  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  63  92  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  56  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  94  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  57  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  57  92  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  93  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  96  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  89  58  88 /   5   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  53  89  57  88 /  20  10   0   0
Raton...........................  52  93  55  92 /  10   5   0   0
Springer........................  52  95  56  94 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  54  89  54  88 /   5   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  62  95  66  94 /  10  20   0   0
Roy.............................  58  92  61  92 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  63  99  67  99 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  97  63  96 /   5   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  65  99  67  98 /   5   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  97  67  96 /  20   5   5   0
Portales........................  66  98  67  98 /  20   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66 100  67 100 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  71 105  72 105 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  99  62  98 /  10   5   0   0
Elk.............................  60  96  60  94 /   5   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24