901
FXUS65 KABQ 261717 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1117 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Warm and mostly dry weather will continue to prevail through the
middle of next week. A few gusty virga showers could develop over
the northern mountains each afternoon Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures will threaten record highs in many areas the next
several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

An unseasonably strong 592dm H5 ridge over central NM this morning
will drift southward into northern Chihuahua while a 55kt speed max
approaches the Four Corners Friday morning. Confidence is very high
that near-record high temps will impact the region with widespread
upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower terrain. Very dry air with light
winds and clear skies will create large diurnal temperature swings
tonight. Low temps will be comfortably cool but still 5 to 10F above
normal in many areas.

A backdoor cold front will enter eastern NM Friday with increasing
low level moisture in its wake. Improving lift over the northern mts
beneath the 55kt speed max and weak convergence along the backdoor
front may allow a few showers and storms to develop over the high
terrain. This activity will be dry in nature with gusty outflow
winds and brief rain possible. Temps will trend a few degrees cooler
over northeast NM while the rest of the area sees near-record high
temps again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The aformentioned backdoor cold front will eventually spill through
the gaps of the central mountain chain Friday night. Neither the
density nor the pressure gradient aren`t particularly impressive so
wind gusts will probably max out at around 30 kts at the mouth of
canyons. While there should be enough mid-level moisture to
recycle and create another round of virga showers on Saturday,
subsidence in the wake of the trough exiting to the southeast will
decrease coverage on Saturday afternoon. Temps should cool a few
degrees in the east behind the cold front, but will still run
several degrees above seasonal averages across the entire area.

The jet stream is progged to remain well north of New Mexico early
to next week, allowing the hot and dry weather to persist.
Ensemble guidance keeps 500mb heights at or above the 90th
percentile Sunday through Tuesday so temps won`t budge much.
Probabilistic guidance suggests Monday could be the hottest day of
the week with over a 70% chance of reaching at least 90F in
Albuquerque. Another weak backdoor front Monday night could again
create breezy east winds through the gaps of the central mountain
chain. A surface Low over the Mojave desert could help to make the
wind stronger than the ones this week, but it does not look like
a high-end event regardless. Warm and dry weather is expected to
persist through the rest of the week. A southwest breeze may
begin to develop late in the week or over the weekend as the sub-
tropical jet intensifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR prevails with light prevailing winds. A modest backdoor
frontal boundary will swing through eastern NM Friday morning
bringing a northeasterly wind shift. Scattered virga showers will
be present over the northern mountains and adjacent valley areas
just beyond the end of the TAF period Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions expected for at least
the next 7 days. A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate the
region with near-record high temps, low humidity, and light winds on
most days. A backdoor cold front entering eastern NM on Friday will
help to generate isolated dry and gusty showers and storms across
northern NM. The next backdoor front will enter eastern NM Monday.
Vent rates will be poor on several days for large parts of the area
thru early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  50  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  43  86  43 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  84  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  88  42  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  83  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  87  42  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  84  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  84  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  82  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  47  92  51 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  92  55  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  79  43  79  44 /   0   0  10   5
Los Alamos......................  82  56  82  56 /   0   0  10   0
Pecos...........................  84  49  82  52 /   0   0   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  46  79  47 /   0   0  10   5
Red River.......................  71  44  69  42 /   0   0  10   5
Angel Fire......................  77  31  74  35 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  83  43  82  45 /   0   0   5   0
Mora............................  82  43  79  46 /   0   0  10   0
Espanola........................  89  52  89  52 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  84  53  83  54 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  50  87  53 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  61  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  56  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  59  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  91  54  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  92  56  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  90  49  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  92  53  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  90  47  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  88  59  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  92  59  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  93  59  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  57  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  86  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  87  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  41  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  83  49  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  86  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  84  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  86  61  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  83  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  88  45  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  89  45  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  85  47  82  48 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  87  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  85  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  90  53  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  89  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  52  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  89  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  90  54  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  93  61  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  58  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  87  55  89  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24