261
FXUS65 KABQ 121737 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Quieter weather generally in store for today, after some morning
fog in the eastern Plains, though heat begins to build and then
reaches its height on Thursday. Clouds and increased rain and
thunder chances bring some relief from the heat for Friday into
early Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower
today compared to Tuesday, then very low on Thursday. Precip
chances then begin increasing in western New Mexico Thursday night
before peaking during the daytime hours on Friday. Burn scar
flash-flooding is likely to be a concern, especially for the
Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon area. Rain chances taper off into
Saturday, with heat returning for the early part of next week.
Breezy southwest winds appear likely for Monday and Tuesday, with
only a slight downtick in temperatures from Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Fog and low clouds are making there way westward toward the east
central plains this morning. Still possible that visibility could
drop as low as 1/4 mile around Clovis and Portales toward sunrise. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed later this morning. Thereafter, a
much quieter day is in store across northern and central NM. The H5
upper level high across western NM will increase to around 595-
596dam this afternoon which will limit the amount of convection
today. A few storms remain possible across the eastern half of the
state, particularly around the south central mountains, but severe
weather is not anticipated today. Nonetheless, large temp/dewpoint
spreads and inverted-V profiles will allow for gusty downburst winds
with any shower or thunderstorm. Rather, the main story today will
be the warming temperatures. Temperatures will warm another 5 to 10
degrees over yesterday`s readings, with many areas topping out in
the 90s to low 100s. The warming trend will continue into Thursday
as the upper high moves squarely over central NM. Several areas will
top out in the triple digits, and given high confidence of this,
went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for Thursday afternoon for the
middle and lower Rio Grande Valleys, Northwest Plateau to include
Farmington as well as the Roswell area. Albuquerque and Roswell may
tie or break the record high for the date (100 and 107 degrees,
respectively), and several other locations will be close. Storms
will be few and far between on Thursday afternoon, but couldn`t rule
out a dry lightning strike and/or sprinkle across western NM in the
afternoon or a stray thunderstorm across the south central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Overall, fairly typical weather for late June is expected to
ensue, with the pattern appearing transitional at times toward
monsoon-like. Following Thursday`s heat, Friday still looks like
the wettest day of the next week across New Mexico, as an upper-
level low approaches and manages to pull in relatively high column
moisture values. Rain and thunderstorm chances currently favor
roughly the northern half of NM, as the mid-level low initially
along the AZ/CA border fills while it moves toward the Four
Corners region through the day on Friday. Precip shield expands
from west-to-east beginning early on Friday morning. QPF has
trended similar to previous forecast package, with highest areal-
average amounts of 0.5-1.0 inches across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and adjacent highlands before the upper trough exits New
Mexico by mid-day Saturday. The Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn
scar will need to be watched carefully, particularly Friday
afternoon into the evening, when flash flooding is likely to be a
concern. Friday should also see some relief from Thursday`s heat,
with max temps 10-15 degrees F lower due to increased cloud cover
and rain chances.

Temperatures are then forecast pop back up to near or above
normal on Saturday, except perhaps over the NE, depending on
timing of the exiting trough, as weak/flat ridging takes hold in
the wake of Friday`s system. Some re-development of thunderstorms
is possible over the NE highlands and plains Saturday mid-day,
but coverage should remain fairly isolated to widely scattered and
peter out by mid-afternoon.

Relatively weak flow at upper levels is progged for Sunday, as a
much drier column starts to work in at lower levels ahead of a low
in the Pacific NW (and eventually a large-scale W. CONUS trough)
heading toward Monday. Breezy SW winds takes shape on Monday, as
modest lee-side troughing develops over CO. Temperatures continue
to run a few degrees above normal over most of the area through
Tuesday, with some areas flirting with Heat Advisory criteria
again on Sunday, with upper 90s/near-100F temps in the ABQ metro,
for example. There may be enough moisture hanging on near the
Texas border along a quasi-dryline for slight chance of
thunderstorms late Sunday and Monday afternoons, but guidance has
trended away from this scenario. A back-door cold front may bring
the next shot at relief from the heat, arriving next Tuesday
night. Rain chances still questionable, as the subtropical ridge
looks to build back westward from the Gulf coast around this same
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central
New Mexico. High-based cumulus clouds will continue to develop
over the central mountain chain of the state through the afternoon
with a couple to a few stray showers and thunderstorms
developing, mostly in the vicinity of KAXX and KSRR. These will be
weak showers or storms, producing minimal rainfall, but gusty
downburst winds will be possible around them as rainfall quickly
evaporates (virga) in the drier air beneath the clouds. Look for
these showers and storms to fall apart and come to an end as they
move into the eastern plains this evening with a slow clearing
trend starting overnight. A similar pattern is forecast for
Thursday, but temperatures will warm more with even fewer showers
or storms. The hot temperatures will lead to high density altitude
readings, suggesting poor aircraft performance for many.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Warmer and drier conditions are expected today and Thursday before
another round of showers and thunderstorms arrive on Friday. Hot
temperatures, several hours of single digit RH across central and
western NM and high Haines values will be the rule both today and
Thursday. Fortunately, there will not be much wind with an upper
level high building overhead. Moisture return begins Thursday night
in advance of the next storm system. An upper level low will eject
eastward from SoCal and cross northern NM. Plenty of lift with
continued increasing moisture will yield showers and thunderstorms
with wetting rainfall across much of the area. Brief critical fire
weather conditions are looking less likely Friday afternoon across
west central NM with winds not expected to be quite as strong in
that area. Temperatures will cool with the system passage but will
quickly rebound over the weekend. Dry and breezy conditions look to
return early next week with brief critical fire weather conditions
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  57 100  61 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  91  47  94  46 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  92  55  94  56 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  95  49  96  50 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  90  53  91  55 /   0   0   5  30
Grants..........................  94  50  95  55 /   0   0   5  20
Quemado.........................  92  56  92  56 /   0   0   5  30
Magdalena.......................  93  63  95  65 /   5   5   5  20
Datil...........................  91  60  92  61 /   0   0  10  30
Reserve.........................  95  49  96  51 /   0   0   5  30
Glenwood........................  99  61 101  69 /   0   0   0  20
Chama...........................  84  47  87  47 /  10   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  86  65  90  65 /  10   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  90  58  95  60 /   5   5   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  83  50  88  48 /  10   5   0  10
Red River.......................  74  44  79  48 /  20   5   5  10
Angel Fire......................  80  35  84  45 /  10   0   0   5
Taos............................  89  50  93  55 /   5   0   0  10
Mora............................  85  52  88  53 /  10   0   5   5
Espanola........................  95  60  98  61 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  89  62  94  63 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  93  59  98  61 /   5   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  67  98  68 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  68 101  67 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  66 102  67 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  67 101  68 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  99  63 102  63 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  98  65 101  67 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  99  62 102  63 /   0   0   0  20
Corrales........................  98  63 101  67 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  99  62 102  64 /   0   0   0  20
Placitas........................  94  65  97  67 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  97  67 100  67 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro......................... 101  69 105  69 /   5   5   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  64  92  62 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  91  65  95  62 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  91  61  94  58 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  54  95  55 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  88  58  92  57 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  92  62  95  60 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  93  59  96  60 /   0   0   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  96  67 100  67 /   5   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  90  61  92  63 /  20  10  10  10
Capulin.........................  89  57  92  56 /  10  10  10  10
Raton...........................  92  55  95  56 /  10  10   5   5
Springer........................  91  55  96  58 /  10  10   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  87  55  92  58 /  10   5   0   5
Clayton.........................  94  64  99  64 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  90  61  95  61 /  10  10   5  10
Conchas.........................  97  64 101  65 /   5   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  94  63  97  63 /   5   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  96  64 100  65 /   0   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  94  66  99  67 /   5   5   0  10
Portales........................  95  66 100  67 /   0   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  97  66 101  66 /  10   5   0   5
Roswell......................... 101  69 107  73 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  95  64  99  64 /  30  10  10  10
Elk.............................  92  62  96  62 /  30   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-219-220-
238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...52