906
FXAK67 PAJK 232327
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
327 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Lingering showers will continue through tomorrow with
times of moderate rain as a low remains over the the gulf. This low
is allowing for a few short waves to move over the panhandle. This
means that winds will continue to stay steady throughout the rest of
the day. Winds will remain around 15 to 20 kts gusting up to 30 kts
in some places inland. Winds will start to lighten tomorrow morning
as the low begins to weaken allowing for the pressure gradient to
weaken as well. Along the gulf coast waters and the inner channels
winds are expected to remain elevated into tomorrow morning. Strong
breezes for marine waters will continue into tonight with the
strongest winds found along the northern inside channels.

Another possible impact through this short term period is the slight
chance of isolated thunderstorms over the gulf. Confidence is on
the lower end, but with enough energy and instability we can see
these storms develop.

.LONG TERM...The mid-range begins with a rain-filled start as
waves of precipitation continue to rotate in around a decaying low
in the Gulf. Periods of rain will remain throughout most of the
area until precip chances diminish across the northern half of the
panhandle on Thursday as a system approaches from the SW and cuts
off the moisture support and onshore flow to the N. Operation
guidance has converged on a more northerly track with this system
than previously progged, which will see it move across the Dixon
Entrance and then into southern panhandle. Operational guidance
is still having some trouble pinning down the exact track the
system thus far, but it is safe to say that rain and wind are
anticipated with this low. Anticipate that the relative rain
amounts will be lower than the previous system.

Through much of the weekend, chances of rain diminish, though
lingering moisture transport will maintain some chances of precip.
This situation abruptly reverses as a potentially strong Autumn
system arrives Sunday or Monday. Ensemble guidance is broadly
placing the center of the low over the western Gulf, but the
potential for broad areas of storm force winds over the eastern Gulf
and strong or even high winds across parts of the panhandle are
possible if an anticipated frontal band proves as strong as some
guidance is suggesting. This system will need to be closely
monitored over the next week, as minor changes in timing or track
could have large variations on resulting storm strength and
impacts to SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION...Very active day across the area as post frontal
showers are making things difficult. VFR and MVFR ceilings and Vis
are common, but occasional IFR conditions in heavier showers are
not uncommon either. Winds have also been frisky with surface
winds gusting to 35 mph, but winds at higher altitude have been
higher. A few pilot reports of low level wind shear and turbulence
have been received throughout the day. Lower conditions and winds
are expected to persist through the night as a more organized
area of showers moves into the north tonight. Slowly improving
conditions are expected into Tuesday night and Wednesday as
showers diminish.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031>033-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...EAL

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