331
FXUS61 KAKQ 100730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough approaches the area later today, and
lingers closer to the coast through Tuesday, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms. High pressure settles across
the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast Thursday and
Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- A weak cold front will bring scattered showers/storms to the
  area late this evening over southern VA and NE NC, before
  tapering off overnight.

A weak cold front has cleared much of the area as of 01z. and
will drop into NE NC through midnight. Aloft, an upper level
low was located across S Quebec/northern New England. Scattered
showers will continue along and south of the US-460 corridor
from south central VA into southside Hampton Roads and NE NC
through around midnight as the front drops south of the area and
the upper shortwave aloft crosses northern NC. Gradual clearing
overnight from NW to SE, with southern areas drying out. A wind
shift to the NNW and brief wind gusts to ~20 kt will be
possible with the frontal passage over far SE sections through
late this evening, with winds becoming light/variable farther
north. Overnight lows in the mid- upper 50s NW to the upper 60s
SE (due to lingering cloud cover over SE VA into the northern
OBX) are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Monday and Tuesday.

- Isolated to scattered showers or storms mainly near the coast
Monday evening and Tuesday.

An upper level trough moves over the East Coast Mon. The trough
lingers through Tue before moving offshore. As such, CAMs show the
potential for a few light showers early Mon morning across NE NC
with additional low probabilities mainly along the coast and the far
NW Piedmont Mon afternoon (15-30% PoPs). Surface convergence may be
locally enhanced Mon evening as a weak surface low and cold front
moves through. As such, have increased PoPs to 30-44% across the
Eastern Shore Mon evening. A few isolated to scattered
showers/storms are also possible from late Tue morning into Tue
afternoon near/along the coast. Very little accumulation is expected
from both days with total additional QPF of <0.05". Aside from the
low rain chances, Mon and Tue are on track to be pleasantly cool
days for June with highs in the low-mid 80s Mon and upper 70s to
around 80F Tue. These temps combined with dew points in the low-mid
50s Mon and mid-upper 50s Tue under partly sunny skies should make
for pleasant outdoor conditions. Lows in the mid-upper 50s W and low-
mid 60s E Mon night and mid 50s W to low-mid 60s E Tue night are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with highs
reaching the mid 90s by Friday.

- Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday with only a slight chance for
afternoon/evening showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

A ridge builds over the East Coast from mid-late week while surface
high pressure gradually moves offshore. This will allow for dry
conditions and a warming trend from mid-late week as highs
increase from the mid-upper 80s Wed to the lower 90s Thu and mid
90s on Fri. While temps will be hot by Fri, dew points in the
60s will act to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer
than the actual air temp. That being said, we could be looking
at heat indices in the mid-upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in
isolated locations) on Fri afternoon. A cold front moves through
Fri night into Sat with temps back in the upper 80s to lower
90s by next weekend. Additionally, a few isolated
showers/storms are possible Fri evening into early Fri night
(across N portions of the FA) as well as Sat afternoon (across
NE NC and SE VA). Lows look to be warmest Thu and Fri nights as
temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban locations.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

A weak cold front has now pushed through the area, now located
just S of the Albemarle Sound. Winds are generally light inland,
and NE at 5-10 kt near the coast in SE VA and NE NC. A broken
line of showers continues from the vicinity of ORF S across NE
NC, but conditions are mainly VFR with just a few pockets of
MVFR VSBYs in the moderate to heavy showers. Included a TEMPO
group through 08Z at ECG to account for this, but will keep it
VFR elsewhere. Dry/VFR conditions prevail for the rest of the
morning and generally through the aftn with W winds to around 10
kt. A few showers/storms are possible mainly across the north,
possibly to include RIC this evening, though coverage will be
limited. A secondary boundary drops through the region late
tonight/Tuesday morning, with winds turning to the N/NE.

Outlook:
Additional isolated convection possible Tuesday afternoon,
primarily near the coast. VFR conditions should then prevail
with dry weather Tue night through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA prevail through at least mid week, but stronger winds and
higher waves will be possible with convection.

- Elevated winds and waves possible late in the week ahead of a cold
front.

- Low rip current risk at all area beaches Monday, potentially
trending toward moderate Tuesday across southern beaches.


Yesterday`s cold front has pushed offshore as of early morning sfc
analysis. Behind it, strong high pressure from central Canada is
building toward the Mid-Atlantic. Latest wind obs are showing
generally light winds out of the NNW, with a few sites on the
eastern side of the Ches Bay showing speeds on either side of 10kt.
Wind direction will vary through the day. Winds turn westerly (5-
10kt) during the morning, then development of a sea breeze turns the
flow onshore for at least southern coastal waters during the
afternoon and evening. A secondary front crosses through the area
tonight, turning winds back to the N, becoming 10-15kt before
sunrise on Tues. Low pressure is then expected to develop offshore
Tues and winds become northeasterly. While the forecast calls for 10-
15kt, can certainly see the potential for slightly stronger winds
Tues morning if the low is stronger than modeled. Will note that the
local wind probs show less than 10% for sustained winds of 18kt or
greater, so SCAs do not seem likely at this point. Periods of
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
with the secondary front and low pressure, which could lead to
briefly higher winds and waves/seas. Winds turn light and northerly
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low moves away from the coast
and high pressure fills in. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday
evening, turning winds to the SE at ~10kt. Elevated winds will be
possible ahead of a potential cold front at the end of the week, but
looks sub-SCA for now.

Seas are around 2ft this morning and waves are 1ft or less. Seas
stay at 2ft through Wed, but waves in the bay will increase to 1-2ft
with northerly winds Tues morning. Seas may increase to 3-4ft and
waves to 1-3ft late in the week ahead of a potential cold front. The
rip risk looks mainly low, though may trend toward moderate across
srn beaches Tuesday w/ nearshore waves 2-3 ft and NNE winds 10-20
mph.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AM