Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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481 FXUS61 KAKQ 231935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches tonight from the west, slowly crossing the area Monday. There is a chance for showers or storms this evening and Monday. Drier weather returns later Monday into Tuesday, but humidity and temperatures increase again for Wednesday. Another cold front approaches the region later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Isolated storms this evening into tonight could produce strong wind gusts. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible across far SE VA and NE NC on Monday. As expected, isolated to scattered convection has fired across portions of the area ahead of an approaching cold front. So far, storms have been on the weaker side thanks to limited shear ~15 knots or less and MLCAPE of only 500-1000 J/kg. While a few stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon/evening, widespread severe weather is generally not anticipated. The other story this afternoon is the heat. Outside of any convection, temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices across the region have generally been running around 100-105 F with locally higher readings. Am not planning on making any changes to the Heat Advisory at this time, but it is possible the advisory may be allowed to end early. Slightly higher shower and storm chances later this evening into tonight as the front begins to push into the region. Still think that the highest PoPs will generally be across far northern portions of the area (MD Eastern Shore) tonight. Will have to watch the northern Eastern Shore for a low-end severe weather threat with slightly better forcing up that way. Another mild night tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. The front slowly progresses SE across the region tonight through tomorrow. However, it will slow or briefly stall over southeastern portions of the area. Along and ahead of the front, temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s will support plentiful sfc-based instability. In fact, a few models still show pockets of 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE in far SE VA and NE NC by late morning/early afternoon. While shear remains on the weak side (~20 kt), this deep instability and continued high DCAPE could support strong updrafts and damaging downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for svr wx across the far SE. In terms of PoPs, have kept the highest (60-70%) over coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound. Further N and W into SE VA, there remains some uncertainty on coverage and have 30-50% PoPs. Most CAMs eventually depict rather aggressive upscale growth of storms as they slowly push S/SE later in the afternoon. Heavy rain and frequent lightning also will be likely in any storm. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 3" in 3 hr are elevated in NE NC but expect recent dry conditions to mitigate any widespread flash flooding concerns. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points also drop off into the upper 50s by the afternoon in central VA, so no concerns here in terms of heat headlines. Also don`t think a heat advisory will be needed across the SE as the aforementioned convection may put an early end to the heat/humidity. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Seasonably warm with lower humidity on Tuesday. - Hot conditions return for Wednesday with heat index values ranging from 100 to 105 F. The front drops south of the region Monday night as weak high pressure settles into the region from the NW. Cooler and more comfortable Monday night compared to the past few nights with low temperatures dropping into the upper 50s across our NW counties with generally low to mid 60s elsewhere (upper 60s to lower 70s at the coast). Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day. High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100- 105 F Wednesday afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. At this time generally dry weather is expected for Wednesday, though an isolated shower or storm may try to spill into our northern western counties as another cold front approaches from the NW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday. - Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area. For Wednesday night and Thursday, another cold front approaches from the NW. The 12z global model suite is still not enthusiastic about widespread rainfall from this front (being cut off from most of the deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture) and generally keeps a good portion of the area dry. Probabilities of >0.50" from the NBM are 20-40% across the area and highest in srn VA and NE NC. Will keep the highest PoPs across the SE where the FROPA looks to occur with the afternoon daytime heating window. Guidance has trended slightly cooler with high temperatures on Thursday and Friday with highs ranging from the 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland. Hotter weather looks to return for next weekend as an upper-level dome of high pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or drought.gov. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Sunday... A cold front approaches the region from the northwest late this afternoon through tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover and increasing chances for mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms. Primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through the period outside of any convection. Gusty SSW winds this afternoon through this evening, with gusts of 20-25 knots. Slightly higher rain chances after 06z, especially across the east and southeast. Some MVFR CIGs will be possible at the eastern TAF sites as we approach sunrise. Scattered chances for showers and storms return late Monday morning into Monday afternoon, mainly focused along coastal terminals with some localized sub-VFR conditions possible. Winds flip around to the NW Monday morning into Monday afternoon in the wake of the front. Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected Monday night through midweek. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs are in effect across all marine zones this afternoon through tonight for elevated SW winds. - Benign marine conditions expected Monday through most of Wednesday. Additional SCAs possible Wednesday night. - Moderate Rip Current Risk for the rest of today, then subsiding to low risk to start the week. High pressure that was previously anchored off the SE coast has moved farther offshore today as a weak front approaches the local area. A tightening pressure gradient between these features is allowing for elevated winds this afternoon. Latest obs reflect SW winds at 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Thus, SCAs are in effect across all marine zones. Later this evening, winds will likely increase a bit as the gradient tightens further and a 30-45kt LLJ kicks in ahead of the front. Between sunset tonight and just before sunrise tomorrow, winds will be 20-25kt (gusts to around 30kt) over coastal waters and around 20kt in the bay and rivers. The front will cross local waters tomorrow morning, turning winds to the NW. Winds will be lighter at 5-10kt in southern waters and 10-15kt in northern waters. Also, a sea breeze will likely form in the late afternoon along the Virginia Beach/Northern OBX coast. NW winds persist into Tuesday morning. High pressure passes overhead Tuesday, so winds will be lighter and vary in direction through the day. Winds turn back to the S Tuesday night as high pressure slides offshore and increases to around 15kt. Additional SCAs may be needed Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as another front approaches. Seas are gradually increasing this afternoon with northern buoys showing 4-5ft. Southern coastal waters still at 2-3ft as of latest obs. Seas will increase tonight to 5-6ft (7ft out near 20nm) N of Parramore Island and 3-5ft to the S. Seas should fall back fairly quickly tomorrow, with 2-3ft expected by tomorrow evening. Seas will stay at 2-3ft through at least Wednesday. Waves are starting out at 2-3ft this afternoon and will increase in the bay to 3-4ft overnight. Waves will fall back to 1-2ft tomorrow and stay there through the first half of the week. Rips: A Moderate Rip Current risk persists today across all area beaches for the rest of the afternoon. However, an increasing SSW wind will likely lead to a longshore current and building nearshore waves, especially for the northern beaches && .CLIMATE... Record high minimum temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23): - RIC: 76 (2010) - ORF: 79 (2015) - SBY: 75 (1925) - ECG: 78 (2015) Record high temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23): - RIC: 101 (1988) - ORF: 99 (2015) - SBY: 99 (1988) - ECG: 99 (2011) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW NEAR TERM...AJB/SW SHORT TERM...AJB LONG TERM...AJB/SW AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJZ/AM CLIMATE...