435
FXUS61 KALY 210608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
208 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Morning clouds break for partly sunny skies today
with continued mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions before
skies trend clearer through the day tomorrow and temperatures turn
a bit cooler. Our long stretch of dry weather then comes to an end
by the middle to end of this week as unsettled conditions develop
and chances for showers increase Tuesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Thanks to our coastal low off stalled south and east of Cape
Cod, a low stratus cloud deck with ceilings at 1.5-2.5kft
through western New England and will remain in place the rest
of the night. Easterly winds aloft have allowed these low clouds
to slowly spread westward through the Hudson River Valley and
now into the eastern Catskills. These clouds have kept
temperatures mild in the upper 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, high
clouds associated with a weak shortwave trough in southern
Canada and attendant warm front progressing through the Ohio
Valley continues to spill eastward through Central NY and into
our Mohawk Vally and southern/western Adirondack areas. With
only high clouds overhead here, temperatures have cooled in
response to radiational cooling dropping into the low 50s.

Between the incoming high clouds from the west and advancing low
stratus from the east, the rate of cooling tonight will decrease
with overnight lows only reaching into the low to mid 50s west
of the Hudson and mid to upper 50s east into western New
England. We removed most of the fog from the forecast given the
increasing cloud coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Western edge of the more solid cloud cover reaches somewhere
near the NY and New England border Saturday, then the coastal
storm finally begins to exit. A sprinkle cannot be ruled out in
the Berkshires, southern VT and NW CT. The side door cold front
tracks west through our region and boundary layer temperatures
will cool a little as winds will be light from the east and
southeast. Highs Saturday in the 70s with around 70 in higher
terrain and western New England.

A mix of mix and high clouds is expected Saturday night through
Monday as upper energy in the Great Lakes weakens and lifts
north and east, missing eastern NY and western New England. So,
cooler weather from the north and east and continued dry, while
some mid and high clouds from the weakening system north and
west of us.

Highs Sunday around 70 to mid 70s and some 60s higher terrain.
Highs Monday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and cooler in higher
elevations. Some thickening clouds Monday as flat upper ridging
in our region exits and stronger upper energy begins its
approach from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper system approaches from the west and the old boundary
pushes east as a diffuse warm front Monday night through
Tuesday. Mainly dry but more increase in the clouds through
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with around 60 higher terrain.

Increasing low level forcing, upper dynamics and moisture
advection will support rain chances Tuesday night through
Friday, with the best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still
as the upper energy weakens later Wednesday through Friday and
upper ridging may try to build back into the region, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur through the
period, with very slowly decreasing coverage each day.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s with around 60 higher
terrain. Highs Friday, with continued decrease in coverage of
showers, warming just a little, in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and lower to mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR cigs at terminals along the Hudson will
trend toward MVFR at 2-3 kft as low clouds associated with a surface
low off Cape Cod slowly extend westward from New England, while MVFR
cigs persist at PSF. Elevated low cloud coverage will lessen the
potential for the development of any radiation fog, but there
remains a conditional threat for restricted vsbys within fog if the
low cloud deck remains east of ALB/GFL/POU, however that is
considered the less likely scenario at this point.

Following sunrise, low cloud coverage will decrease as diurnal
mixing initiates, however sct strato-cu coverage at 3-5 kft will
continue through much of the day. Bkn cigs at 2-5 kft are again
expected late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a weak upper-
level system approaches from the west, but no other impacts are
anticipated at area terminals.

Calm to light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the
north to northeast at around 5 kt after 12-15Z Sat, turning
increasingly out of the east at 5-10 kt through 00Z Sun. Light east
winds at less than 5 kt are expected into Saturday night.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard