813
FXUS63 KAPX 081852
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers today.

- High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.

- Next chance of rain and some thunder Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances
  Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern
  Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A cutoff upper level low will continue to reside across the region
into tonight before slowly lifting out of the area Sunday. Upper
level disturbances embedded in the upper low will continue to bring
chances for showers. APX and surrounding radars along with surface
observations indicates that showers continue to overspread northern
Michigan. This activity is expected to move across the region
through early evening. An embedded rumble of thunder can`t be ruled
out. Hi/resolution guidance then has various possibilities tonight
with the best chance of lingering showers across eastern upper and
far northern lower. The next disturbance Sunday appears to be
moisture starved so only expecting isolated showers and sprinkles.
Another push of cooler air along with a decent amount of cloud cover
will likely limit highs Sunday to the upper 50s to the 60s (10 to 15
degrees below seasonal averages). Tonight`s lows ranging from the
mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An amplified pattern is expected for the beginning of the long-term
as longwave troughing across the Midwest quickly shifts east as a
ridge of high pressure tracks closely behind. Pressure rises will
bring about warmer and dryer weather resulting in little to no
precipitation chances until Wednesday. A wave of energy is expected
to pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with its
associated surface low north of Lake Superior. With a cold frontal
passage expected to pass through the region Wednesday, this setup
could bring about some showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or
two. As the ridge tracks eastward, a more progressive zonal pattern
sets up for the rest of the week. With this, the chance for some
convective activity still exists as waves track just north of the
Mitt- Stay tuned!


PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Temperatures:  As pressure rises in response to a ridge overhead,
clouds will decrease in coverage leading to a steeper diurnal curve
from daytime highs and nighttime lows. By Tuesday temperatures will
be in the 70s and will continue to increase through the week with
most areas forecasted to be in the upper 70s/80s by Thursday.
Nighttime lows will also slowly increase with the temperatures, but
will still be generally 20 to 30 degrees cooler then daytime highs.
Sunday and Monday night look to be the coolest nights on tap with
lows in the upper 30s/ low 40s, especially Monday night. No frost is
expected at this time, but it cannot be ruled out just yet.

Precipitation Chances: An advancing wave and associated low pressure
and cold front boundary are expected to track through the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. There are some signals that
severe weather could be possible, but signals are weak for this
possibility. The most likely scenario to help initiate things, would
be for the front to pass through the region later in the day
Wednesday to provide more time for instability to build from diurnal
heating. Guidance continues to struggle with the rest of the week in
regards to exact timing of next precipitation chances, but it is
looking to be unsettled as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Low pressure moves across the region today with a weaker system
expected on Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers
are expected at times, especially through this evening.
Cigs/vsbys are expected to remain mainly vfr into tonight but
mvfr or even ifr cigs could develop toward the end of the taf
period. Westerly winds will likely become gusty at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...AJS