774
FXUS63 KAPX 081038
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
638 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain returns late morning/early afternoon.

- High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.

- Next chance of rain and perhaps some thunder Wednesday.

- Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances
  Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern
  Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Subtle, low-amplitude ridging embedded in the mid/upper jet draped
across the northern CONUS will slide east of the Great Lakes this
morning as an embedded shortwave/jet max punches overhead later this
afternoon and evening. Forcing generated by this feature aloft will
help support a weak, elongated cyclone that looks to work from west
to east across the lower peninsula today into Sunday morning.

Forecast Details:

Widespread rain returns -- Primary focus of the short term will be
the return of widespread light rain from the west later this
morning. Initially dry profiles are expected to saturate from the
top down with time as the aforementioned cyclone and associated
forcing work into the area. As profiles saturate, rainfall may
initially struggle to reach the ground. Regardless, rainfall is
expected to spread across the majority of northern Michigan through
this afternoon and into this evening. Additional showers and an
isolated thunderstorm or two may pop up behind the main slug of
rainfall late this evening and overnight. Otherwise, cooler-than-
average temperatures are in store once again this afternoon with
highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s for most. Overnight lows
look to dip into the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Longwave troughing is set to shift its way eastward as ridging
intrudes from the plains. Surface high pressure will induce a drying
pattern, scouring out pesky moisture and resulting in minimal (if
any) shower chances Sunday. Decreased cloud cover will be the rule
as we progress from Monday (which will feature a chilly-for-June
northerly breeze) into Tuesday, with temps recovering from the 50s
and 60s Sunday into the 70s by Tuesday, with cool to even chilly
nights Sunday and Monday night (could see some upper 30s Monday
night, frost not anticipated at this juncture). Another wave passes
through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with associated
surface low pressure progged to pass north of Lake Superior. Cold
frontal boundary passing through Wednesday looks to spark the next
rain chances. Beyond then, zonal flow beneath deeper ridging sets
in. While this garners warmer temperatures (potentially into the 80s
Thursday and beyond), some evidence of an active convective pattern
to our west may lead to some decaying convective processes leaking
into the region at times to close out the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation Chances: Rain chances set to be on the decrease Sunday
as cooler and drier air works into the region. Could be just enough
diurnal heating to spark off a shower during the day, but overall,
thinking a majority of the region holds dry to close out the
weekend. Attention turns to the advancing wave and associated low
pressure / cold frontal boundary progged to pass through the region
some time late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Best chances
for this to amount to much will be if the front passes through later
in the day Wednesday, allowing for some instability to build, which
should generate showers and thunder. Not an overly strong signal for
severe weather at this time with this system. Rain chances later in
the week will be heavily dependent on how convection evolves
upstream in the Plains, so some variation in the forecast for
Thursday and beyond is certainly on the table between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan this morning
before some areas step down to MVFR CIGs by early to mid afternoon,
beginning from west to east as light rain spreads across the area.
Any MVFR CIGs are expected to lift back to VFR this evening. West to
west-southwest winds around 5-10 kts are expected today with gusts
to 15-20 kts at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...DJC