975
FXUS63 KAPX 091824
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
224 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost is possible Monday night.

- There is potential for strong thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified troughing continues to pinwheel
across the Great Lakes on the western periphery of parent upper-
level closed low pressure over southern Quebec. This system shifts
west over the next 24-36 hours with slowly rising heights across the
western Great Lakes by the half of the day Monday. At the surface,
expansive high pressure centered to our west begins to build into
the region tonight/Monday, eventually becoming centered overhead
Monday night.

Forecast Details: A few isolated showers remain possible through
this evening across northern Michigan given lingering low-level
moisture and energy pinwheeling around aforementioned parent low
pressure downstream. That said, confidence is low in development or
coverage of additional showers with the vast majority of the
forecast area favored to remain dry, albeit cool and damp feeling.
Otherwise, a slow clearing trend anticipated tonight with mostly
sunny skies anticipated for the day Monday. High temperatures Monday
in the 60s area-wide -- warmest to near 70 degrees in downsloping
locales of northeast lower/near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Hope for better weather is on the horizon after a miserable weekend
across most of northern Michigan. An upper level ridge currently off
to our west finally dislodges the trough stuck across the region
over the last few days. This ridge will be in control of the weather
leading to clear to partly skies and warmer daytime temperatures
Monday, and especially Tuesday. Unfortunately, light winds and very
little cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble Monday night.
Patchy frost is even possible, mainly across low lying areas. Fairly
benign weather on Wednesday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Attention
then turns to a northern stream trough currently evident on water
vapor imagery across southwest Canada. A developing southerly flow
in advance of this system, growing instability and strengthening
wind fields could come together to generate strong thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Too far out to discern the details
but something we will be looking at over the next couple of days.
Perhaps another short wave moving through the flow Friday leading to
chances for showers and storms. Upper level ridging/even warmer
temperatures are then expected to take over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

MVFR CIGs continue to push south across northern Michigan this
afternoon with low probabilities (<20%) of some localized and
generally brief IFR CIGs late this afternoon/evening. Latest
trends favor clearing skies and a return to solid VFR from north
to south overnight. North-northwest winds through the TAF
period, occasionally gusty at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG