603
FXUS63 KAPX 090856
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for showers into this evening.

- High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.

- Next chance of rain and some thunder Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances
  Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern
  Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong troughing will continue to pivot east of the Great Lakes
today as the embedded jet max progresses over New England. The
associated expansive surface cyclone will also spin across southeast
Canada as highly amplified ridging upstream builds surface high
pressure across central Canada/Great Plains into the Great Lakes
tonight.

Forecast Details:

Slight chances for showers into this evening -- Light showers will
scrape the eastern U.P. and parts of northeast lower over the next
few hours in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface low
while other portions of the area remain dry. Slight chances for
additional showers across the area will remain into this evening,
but confidence is low in any one place across the CWA seeing showers
later today. Regardless, a chilly day is in store for most of
northern Michigan with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, and
temperatures in the 50s and low 60s for most. Lows tonight will well
into the 40s across interior areas with warmer temps closer to the
lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Ridging moves overhead to start the week, with surface high pressure
moving into the upper Great Lakes keeping things on the drier side
of things. Temperatures will moderate through the 60s into the 70s
by Tuesday. Clear skies and calm winds associated with high pressure
likely bring about a chilly night Monday night, especially in the
interior where some localized temps in the mid 30s are not out of
the realm of possibility. Will have to monitor the potential for
frost, but at this time, looks like we stay just warm enough to
avoid that. A shortwave riding the flow around the ridge axis will
pass through, with associated surface low passing north of Lake
Superior, forcing a cold front through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This should drum up the next chance of rain and thunder
Tuesday night, but the nocturnal timing of this feature may leave
much to be desired in shower/storm coverage and intensity. Looking
ahead, another wave passes through, dragging a front across the
region Thursday, with the front slowly clearing the area by late
Thursday night into Friday, with another wave on this system`s heels
for the weekend, setting the stage for periods of unsettled weather
to close out the week into the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Monday Night Temps: Clear skies and calming winds lead to a chilly
night for most. Interior cold spots across northern lower and
eastern upper Michigan may see temps fall into the mid 30s following
a day with highs in the 60s and dewpoints falling into the low-to-
mid 30s. While frost is not anticipated at this juncture, if
confidence in colder temps increases, we could be teetering toward
frost development.

Precipitation Chances: Next chance of rain will be in the form of
showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak cold front passes
through. Lack of instability largely impedes storm development, thus
leading to more of a synoptic rain setup., Considering preceding dry
air influences, would not be surprising to see rain chances dwindle
a little more to just a few passing showers across the entirety of
the CWA. Better moisture (dewpoints build into the 50s) and warmer
temps support better instability building in on Thursday into
Thursday night. Coupled with better forcing, this could be the next
chance at more widespread showers and thunder. May need to consider
a locally stronger storm with this passage if guidance continues to
be bullish on 35-45kts of bulk shear in conjunction with this
passage. Another wave is progged to pass through later Friday into
Saturday, which would bring the next chance for showers to the
region. Will conclude the discussion with this caveat: rain chances
will likely be dictated by preceding upstream convective trends, so
changes in forecasts will be possible through the coming
forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Low pressure centered along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border
will push eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile...another upper level trough axis will swing thru the
Western Great Lakes region later tonight into Sunday...
maintaining low VFR/MVFR cigs and small chances of showers for
the next 24 hours. Surface winds will remain W/SW AOB 10 kts
overnight...shifting to the NW and strengthening to 10 to 20
kts with some higher gusts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon EDT Monday
     for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR