Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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895 FXUS63 KAPX 090955 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 555 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chances for showers into this evening. - High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday. Clear and calm conditions lead to a chilly Monday night, with some interior locales possible dipping into the mid 30s. - Next chance of rain and perhaps some thunder Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Potential for additional rounds of showers and thunder at times Thursday into the weekend as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Strong troughing will continue to pivot east of the Great Lakes today as the embedded jet max progresses over New England. The associated expansive surface cyclone will also spin across southeast Canada as highly amplified ridging upstream builds surface high pressure across central Canada/Great Plains into the Great Lakes tonight. Forecast Details: Slight chances for showers into this evening -- Light showers will scrape the eastern U.P. and parts of northeast lower over the next few hours in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface low while other portions of the area remain dry. Slight chances for additional showers across the area will remain into this evening, but confidence is low in any one place across the CWA seeing showers later today. Regardless, a chilly day is in store for most of northern Michigan with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, and temperatures in the 50s and low 60s for most. Lows tonight will well into the 40s across interior areas with warmer temps closer to the lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Ridging moves overhead to start the week, with surface high pressure moving into the upper Great Lakes keeping things on the drier side of things. Temperatures will moderate through the 60s into the 70s by Tuesday. Clear skies and calm winds associated with high pressure likely bring about a chilly night Monday night, especially in the interior where some localized temps in the mid 30s are not out of the realm of possibility. Will have to monitor the potential for frost, but at this time, looks like we stay just warm enough to avoid that. A shortwave riding the flow around the ridge axis will pass through, with associated surface low passing north of Lake Superior, forcing a cold front through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This should drum up the next chance of rain and thunder Tuesday night, but the nocturnal timing of this feature may leave much to be desired in shower/storm coverage and intensity. Looking ahead, another wave passes through, dragging a front across the region Thursday, with the front slowly clearing the area by late Thursday night into Friday, with another wave on this system`s heels for the weekend, setting the stage for periods of unsettled weather to close out the week into the weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns: Monday Night Temps: Clear skies and calming winds lead to a chilly night for most. Interior cold spots across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan may see temps fall into the mid 30s following a day with highs in the 60s and dewpoints falling into the low-to- mid 30s. While frost is not anticipated at this juncture, if confidence in colder temps increases, we could be teetering toward frost development. Precipitation Chances: Next chance of rain will be in the form of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak cold front passes through. Lack of instability largely impedes storm development, thus leading to more of a synoptic rain setup., Considering preceding dry air influences, would not be surprising to see rain chances dwindle a little more to just a few passing showers across the entirety of the CWA. Better moisture (dewpoints build into the 50s) and warmer temps support better instability building in on Thursday into Thursday night. Coupled with better forcing, this could be the next chance at more widespread showers and thunder. May need to consider a locally stronger storm with this passage if guidance continues to be bullish on 35-45kts of bulk shear in conjunction with this passage. Another wave is progged to pass through later Friday into Saturday, which would bring the next chance for showers to the region. Will conclude the discussion with this caveat: rain chances will likely be dictated by preceding upstream convective trends, so changes in forecasts will be possible through the coming forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 554 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Fog at MBL is expected to lift over the next hour or two as daytime mixing commences. MVFR CIGs look to spread from north to south across northern Michigan today, eventually returning to VFR later this evening/tonight as high pressure works into the region. IFR CIGs may be possible across the eastern U.P. for a time this morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, northwest winds between 10-15 kts will gust to 20-25 kts into tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...DJC