050
AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and
National Weather Service Doppler Radar data indicate that showers
and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low pressure
area centered about 80 miles east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia,
continue to lack the necessary organization for the low to be
considered a tropical cyclone. Recent Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that winds to 35 mph are
occurring in association with the low. Only a small increase in
the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it
reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress. For more information,
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast
to form over the Bay of Campeche by this evening. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and
in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Gale Warning issued by Meteo-
France for the AGADIR Marine Zone has expired. Rough seas persist.
For more details, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 22W, south of 13N, moving westward
at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with its axis along 39W, south
of 15N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 12N and between 38W and 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 55W, south of
15N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 58W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 68W, south of
16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 08N36W. A second segment of the
ITCZ is from 10N42W to 08N51W. Scattered showers are along the
ITCZ and Monsoon Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the disturbance over the Yucatn Peninsula.

Broad high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico and Central America support fresh to strong
easterly winds over much of the southern half of the basin,
including the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted
elsewhere in the basin. Scattered moderate convection is across
the Bay of Campeche and coastal Mexico south of 20N.

For the forecast, winds over the SW basin are forecast to reach
near gale-force later today as a broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over SE Mexico, thus increasing the pressure
gradient further. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the SW
Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward. Winds E of 90W are forecast to
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Sat night and to light to
gentle speeds on Sun. Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W
Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large
area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the NW
Caribbean, from 15N to 21N between 78W and 87W.

A tight pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean is forcing fresh to
strong trades, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in remaining
waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale SE winds and rough seas
over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
and moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue night,
except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across
the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to
strong speeds at night over the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
Invest AL92 off NE Florida.

A surface trough extends from 28N42W to 23N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 23N to 30N between 42W and 50W. The rest of
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by subtropical high pressures
centered north of the area. In the East Atlantic, the tight
pressure gradient between the subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over Africa provides for fresh to strong NE winds over
waters east of 20W. Winds may pulse to near-gale force near
31N10W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this region of high winds. Across
remaining waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas.
Scatterometer data indicates trades may be pulsing to fresh speeds
from 18N to 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92,
fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft
will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 77W through
today. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low,
supporting gentle to moderate winds through Tue night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh E winds are expected for Hispaniola adjacent
waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great
Bahama Bank today through Sat.

$$
Mahoney