601
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a
well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary
organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.
Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low.  Only a
small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms
could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression
before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia
tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress.  For more
information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office. This system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and
in 7 days.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche by this evening.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours and in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 25W, south of 14N, moving westward
at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with its axis along 40W, south
of 17N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 15N and between 39W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 56W, south of
14N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 12N and between 54W and 59W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 69W, south of
17N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N28W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 08N37W. A second segment of the
ITCZ is from 09N43W to 08N52W. Scattered showers and thuderstorms
are along the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough from 04N to 12N between 20W
and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the disturbance over the Yucatn Peninsula.

Broad high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in Mexico and Central America support fresh to strong
easterly winds over much of the southern half of the basin,
including the Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted in
the northern the basin. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas
are noted in the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is
across the Bay of Campeche and coastal Mexico south of 26N.
Scattered thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Gulf and the
Florida Straits.

For the forecast, winds over the SW basin are forecast to remain
near gale-force as a broad area of low pressure is expected to
form over the Bay of Campeche by this evening, thus increasing the
pressure gradient further. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Winds E of 90W are forecast to diminish to gentle to
moderate speeds Sat night and to light to gentle speeds on Sun.
Conditions are forecast to improve W of 90W Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large
area of scattered moderate isolated strong convection in the NW
Caribbean, from 17N to 21N between 76W and 86W.

A tight pressure gradient in the NW Caribbean is forcing fresh to
strong trades, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in remaining
waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force SE winds and rough
seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds and moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue
night, except for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night,
pulsing to strong speeds at night over the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
Invest AL92 off NE Florida.

A surface trough extends from 29N42W to 23N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 23N to 31N between 40W and 51W. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by subtropical high
pressures centered north of the area. In the East Atlantic, the
tight pressure gradient between the subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure over Africa provides for fresh to strong NE winds
over waters east of 20W. Winds may pulse to near-gale force near
31N10W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this region of high winds. Across
remaining waters, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas.
Scatterometer data indicates trades may be pulsing to fresh speeds
from 18N to 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92,
fresh to near gale-force SE winds and rough seas to 9 ft will
prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 78W through today.
Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the low,
supporting gentle to moderate winds through Tue night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh E winds are expected for Hispaniola adjacent
waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the Great
Bahama Bank today through Sat.

$$
AReinhart