649
AXNT20 KNHC 220512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate a broad area of low pressure is located
over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery, surface
observations, and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the well-defined low pressure area is moving inland
over southeastern Georgia. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation
from this system is not expected. For more information, refer to
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as
well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both areas above.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 14N, westward
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N
to 08N and between 23W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on
recent scatterometer satellite data. The trough axis extends from
16N41W to 01N50W. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N and
between 44W and 50W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of
15N, westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 08N to 11N and between 51W and 60W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave over the Caribbean waters at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N30W to 07N25W, then from 07N27W to 08N45W
and from 08N47W to 09N57W. The convection has been described in the
Tropical Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
Invest 93L over the Bay of Campeche.

A broad subtropical ridge over the SE United States extends
southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the influence of
Invest 93L, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are occurring
north of 25N and west of 90W and south of 27N and east of 90W.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail in the NE Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection associated with Invest 93L is affecting the waters of
the Gulf south of 26N, including the Florida Straits. The
strongest convection is observed in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is developing over the
Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system as it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward, and a tropical depression could form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests along the Gulf
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas E of 90W are forecast to
diminish to gentle to moderate and slight seas Sat night and to
light to gentle speeds on Sun. Conditions are forecast to improve
W of 90W Sun night into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also producing isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean. A line of showers
and thunderstorms is noted in the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily east
of Nicaragua. Generally drier conditions prevail in the rest of
the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high pressure system
north of Bermuda and lower pressures in the deep tropics result
in fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean, mainly west of
84W, and the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft
are noted in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere in the remaining
waters, the easterly trades are gentle to moderate with 2-5 ft
seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and moderate seas over the
NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
moderate seas by Sat and then prevail through Tue night, except
for pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through
Mon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the
eastern and central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to strong
speeds at night over the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
Invest 92L moving inland over SE Georgia.

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure
system north of Bermuda. Latest satellite-derived wind data
indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are
occurring south of 23N and between 70W and 77W, including the
entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 30N44W to 24N51W and a
few showers are seen east of the trough axis to 41W and north of
23N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence
of a strong 1030 mb high pressure system near the Azores. The
tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
over western Africa provides for fresh to strong NE winds over
waters east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate a broad area of low pressure is located over
the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward, and a tropical depression could
form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests
along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, fresh to strong SE winds and
rough seas to 8 ft will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W
of 78W through tonight. Afterward, high pressure will build in the
wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through
early next week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are expected
for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward
Passage and the Great Bahama Bank through Sat.

$$
Delgado