550
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92): A small but
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists with an
area of low pressure located around 195 nm east of Jacksonville,
Florida. However, it is unclear if the system possesses a well-
defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain
marginally conducive for some additional development, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression as the low
moves west-northwestward at 10-15 kt. The system is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
later today, and interests there should monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later this morning, if necessary. This
system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours and in 7 days.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A disturbance over southern Yucatan
is producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting SE Mexico, Central America, northwestern and central
Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America later today.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and
a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours and in 7 days.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure near the Azores will
shift southeastward through late Fri. A tight pressure gradient
between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in NW
Africa sustains gale-force (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale)
with severe gusts for the marine zone of AGADIR through 21/18Z
according to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning. Expect rough
seas with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France for more details at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced along 18W, south of 13N, based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic
guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers
are seen near the trough axis.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 16N,
based on satellite imagery and recent scatterometer satellite
data. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 30W
and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 16N, based
on satellite imagery. The wave is westward at around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N and between 42W and
55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection in
the SE Caribbean and central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 11N35W, then from 10N36W to 08N49W and
from 08N51W to 09N61W. The convection has been described in the
Tropical Waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the
Gulf of Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates
that the pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures
in Mexico and Central America support strong to near gale-force
easterly winds over much of the western Gulf waters (west of 90W).
The strongest winds are found in the Bay of Campeche. Seas in
these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and seas of 5-8 ft are noted elsewhere in the basin. A disturbance
centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms that is impacting the waters
off NE Yucatan and the Yucatan Channel. Fairly tranquil weather
conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, W of 90W, fresh to strong E winds
and moderate to rough seas will prevail through Sat. A broad area
of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and
northern Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves
over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression
could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while
it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. E of 90W,
moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas will prevail through
Sat, diminishing to light to gentle winds and slight seas through
the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features for more details on the
disturbance over southern Yucatan.

A disturbance centered over southern Yucatan is producing a large
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers much of the
NW and central Caribbean, especially west of 75W. The storm
activity is also impacting western Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
Central America and SE Mexico. Drier conditions are found in the
rest of the basin.

The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure system
positioned between Nova Scotia and Bermuda and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in fresh to strong E-SE winds in the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to
occasionally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident
in the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and
3-6 ft are noted in the eastern and rest of the NW Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near gale SE winds and rough seas
over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
and moderate seas by Sat and prevail through Mon night, except for
pulsing strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night
over the south-central basin through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more details about
Invest 92L off NE Florida and Gale Warning in the Agadir zone.

A 1028 mb high pressure system centered between Nova Scotia and
Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 24N, along with seas of 4-6 ft.
Similar winds and seas are found north of 26N and between 55W and
70W. Farther east, a stationary cold front extends from 31N44W to
28N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
near the frontal boundary.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in fresh to
near gale-force N winds north of 16N and east of 27W. Seas in
these waters are 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 6-9 ft are occurring south of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure located
about 170 mi north-northeast of the northern Bahamas has become a
little better organized during the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions remain marginally conducive for additional development
and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves
west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. The system is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday, and interests there should monitor the progress
of it. Regardless of development, fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 28N through
early Fri. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the
low, supporting gentle to moderate winds through Mon night.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are forecast for Hispaniola
adjacent waters, the approaches to the Windward Passage and the
Great Bahama Bank through Sat night.

$$
Delgado