880
AXNT20 KNHC 201722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall earlier this morning near
Tampico, Mexico. It was downgraded to a tropical depression at
20/1500 UTC. At this time, Alberto is centered near 22.3N 99.4W or
80 nm W of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 16 kt. This motion is
expected to continue through today, as Alberto moves farther
inland over Mexico. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Alberto
is expected to continue weakening as it moves inland, and the
system is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today. Heavy rains
and flash flooding continue in NE Mexico. Satellite imagery depicts
deep convection producing heavy rainfall over the higher terrain
in Mexico. Rainfall associated with Alberto is expected to begin
to diminish across southern Texas today, with additional rainfall
totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will continue to
impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches are
possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of
Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along
the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Swells generated by Alberto will affect the
coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.

Please consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Invest Area (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the
northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. A 1014 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N74.5W
on the 1200 UTC surface map. Scattered moderate convection is
noted mainly in the northern semicircle of the low center. While
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to
nearby dry air, further development of this system could lead to
the development of a tropical depression while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the northeastern
coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary. This system has a medium
change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.

PLease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure north of the Azores
will shift southeastward through late Fri. A tightening of the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in West Africa will support gale-force (Force 8 on the
Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of
AGADIR from June 20/12Z to at least June 21/12Z according to the
METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning issued at 0735 UTC today. Seas are
8 to 9 ft within these winds based on altimeter data.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France for more details at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 04N to 16N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ from 06N to 09N between 27W and 33W.

The axis of another tropical wave is near 46W from 04N to 16N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 43W and 51W.

The third tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
is near 60W south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis
from 08N to 10N between 55W and 61W. A few showers are noted over
the Trinidad and Tobago Islands as well as over northern Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
and continues westward to 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N23W
to 09N40W to 07N50W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N E of 21W to the W coast of Africa. This convective
activity is affecting the coastal waters of Liberia and southern
Sierra Leone.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Alberto, the first tropical storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season,
is now a tropical depression moving farther inland Mexico.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

Aside from impacts discussed above, a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure centered N of Bermuda near 37N65W and Tropical Depression
Alberto is supporting strong to near gale-force E to SE winds over
the Gulf waters west of 90W, with fresh to locally strong E winds
east of 90W. Latest buoy observations and an altimeter pass show
seas in the range of 8 to 13 ft north 22N and west of 90W. Seas
are generally 5 to 8 ft E of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. Bands
of showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the western
Gulf mainly S of 26N and W of 94W. Convection is on increase over
the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Alberto is near 22.3N 99.4W at
11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Alberto will become a remnant low and move to 22.1N
102.7W this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. A broad area of low
pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern
Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of
Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range.
Similar wind speeds are also noted over the NW Caribbean W of
84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted
within the latter winds. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds and moderate seas prevail, except over the SW Caribbean
where winds are mainly gentle with seas in the 2 to 4 ft. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed over the Caribbean
waters W of 73W, more concentrated near the coast of Colombia, and
in the Gulf of Honduras, including Belize and northern Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas over
the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
moderate seas on Sat morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will prevail through Mon night, except for pulsing strong
winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will continue across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Mon night, pulsing to strong speeds at night over the
south-central basin through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1014 mb low pressure (Invest-AL92) is centered E of Florida near
27.5N74.5W. This system has the potential of tropical cyclone
formation. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details.

The pressure gradient between the Invest Area and a 1029 mb high
pressure located N of Bermuda is producing an area of moderate to
fresh NE to E winds N of the low center and W of 70W. A couple of
altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft within these winds. A
stationary front extends 31N50W to 28N60W to 30N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of the front and mainly N of 24N
between 42W and 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of
20N and W of 30W where seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere,
except reaching strong speeds off the coast of Africa N of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of AL92,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will prevail across
the waters N of 28N through early Fri. Afterward, high pressure
will build in the wake of the low, supporting gentle to moderate
winds through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E winds are
forecast for Hispaniola adjacent waters, the approaches to the
Windward Passage and the Great Bahama Bank this evening through
Sat night.

$$
GR