227
AXNT20 KNHC 050421
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A deep-layered upper trough extending
across the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will aid in
strengthening of a low pressure currently located near 30N53W.
This system will move NE and exit the forecast waters Wed
morning. Strong to minimal gale-force SW winds are expected
ahead of this low pres tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 11
ft within these winds.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National
Hurricane Center at web-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. Latest model
guidance indicates that the most significant precipitation are
expected over north-central Dominican Republic. There are also
indications that significant rainfall could occur over parts of
east and central Cuba where abundant moisture will linger
through the rest of the work-week. The rainfall over Hispaniola
and Cuba will be heavily influenced by diurnal heating and the
local and effects. As a result, the heaviest rainfall will occur
in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Please refer to
products from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 07N between 25W and 32W.

A second tropical wave is near 40W from 10N southward, and
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the
southern end of the wave axis from 02N to 06N between 38W and
43W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 13N southward to
Suriname, moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is behind the wave axis from 05N to 09N between 48W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues
southwestward to 08N20W. The ITCZ is divided into three
fragments, from 08N20W to 06N26W, from 05N31 to 04N38W, and from
05N43W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from
09N to 11N between the west coast of Africa and 24W

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over parts of
Panama and regional waters, particularly S of 12N between 76W
and 82W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1016 mb located near 31.5N70W extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is
resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft W
of 90W , and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas E of
90W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in southern
Mexico persist across most of the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche, where medium concentration of smoke is noted on
the smoke graphic recently issued by SAB.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE
Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days.
This pattern will support generally moderate to fresh SE to S
winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds in the eastern Gulf through late Wed. By Thu, the ridge
will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the
weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central
America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days,
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the
western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is
helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba, including also the
Windward Passage and the regional waters between Haiti and
Jamaica.  Recent scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong
winds within the area of the strongest convection.

The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate E to SE
winds over the eastern Caribbean where seas are 5 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are observed with seas of 3 to
6ft over the central part of the basin, and 1 to 3 ft over the
NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western
Atlantic. A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic
to the W Caribbean will continue to support active thunderstorms
across north-central portions through this evening. As this
feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather will
shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through Thu. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds will return to southeast portions of
the basin Thu through Fri then shift into south central portions
through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic. Please read the
Special Features section above for more information.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N36.5W then
continues westward to near 27N43W, where it begins to dissipate.
A surface trough extends from 28N48W to a 1008 mb low pressure
located near 30N53W to 30N55W to 25N61W to near the Windward
Passage. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is S and E of
the trough affecting mainly the waters N of 19N and W of 56W to
the trough axis. Recent scatterometer data revealed fresh to
near-gale force winds from 21.5N to 24N between 60.5W and 62W in
association with this trough. Divergent flow aloft is supporting
this convective activity. High pressure of 1016 mb located near
31.5N70W dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic W of
the above mentioned trough. Another 1022 mb high pressure system
located over the central Atlantic is in control of the weather
pattern across the rest of the forecast waters. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow is noted E of 56W while moderate to
fresh trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W,  a frontal trough extends from 1008
mb low pressure near 30N53W to 30N55W to 25N61W to near the
Windward Passage. A deep-layered upper trough across the W
Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across the
region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between
55W and 70W, that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. The
feature will also aid in strengthening of the low pressure,
which will move NE and exit the area waters Wed morning. Strong
to near gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres
this evening as it moves across the NE waters. Weak high
pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift
slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move into
the far NW waters Sat and stall there Sun.

$$
KRV