242
AXNT20 KNHC 060422
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 06 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0422 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Cuba:
A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the
north-central Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft
across the area through Friday. This will support the generation
of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning,
locally heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Soils remains
saturated. So, the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
continues, especially in north-central Hispaniola Thu afternoon
and evening. Latest model guidance indicates a large area of
convection over Cuba compared to previous model runs. The
rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba will be heavily influenced by
daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting.

Abundant moisture will remain in place, spreading over most of
Cuba and the Cayman Islands on Thu as another upper-level trough
reaches Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to
products from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 32.5W from 11N
southward, and moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is near 45W from 11N southward, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection along
and behind the wave axis from 05N to 07N between 42W and 47W.

Another tropical wave is near 64.5W from 13.5N southward into
Venezuela, moving west at around 20 kt. The wave is enhancing
convection over eastern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W then continues
southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 06N31W,
from 06N34 to 06N43W, and from 06N46W to 05N51W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 15W and
31W, from 05N to 09N between 38W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb located near 29N63W extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is
resulting in moderate to to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft W of 87W, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas E of 87W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in
southern Mexico persist across most of the Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. The latest smoke graphic indicates a medium
concentration of smoke across the western Bay of Campeche, while
a light concentration of smoke is across the eastern Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE
Gulf, and will dominate the basin through the next several days.
This pattern will support generally moderate to locally fresh SE
to S winds in the western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong
near the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern Gulf through early Fri. On Fri, the ridge will weaken,
allowing for winds to diminish somewhat into the weekend. Hazy
conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and
Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, reducing
visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times, mainly over the
southwestern half of the Gulf.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a locally heavy rainfall event.

As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is
helping to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. The San Juan Doppler radar also
continues to indicate showers and thunderstorms over most of the
coastal waters of Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands.

Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds over the eastern
Caribbean where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere,
mainly gentle to locally moderate winds are observed with seas
of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extends across the western
Atlantic along 31N/32N. A deep layered upper-level trough from
the W Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE
across the Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms
spreading from the north-central basin across the NE Caribbean
through Thu. Gentle to moderate E to SE trade winds will
generally prevail across the basin through Thu, locally fresh in
the SE. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will return to
SE portions of the basin Thu evening through Fri then gradually
shift across south-central portions through the weekend, as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic. These winds may
shift into the NW Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from 26N55W to near the Windward
Passage. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds with seas of 7 to
9 ft are observed N of 24N and within about 130-150 nm ahead of
the trough axis. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is on
either side of the frontal trough S of 25N between 43W and 51W.
Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A diffluent pattern
aloft continues to support this convective activity. W of the
trough, high pressure of 1017 mb located near 29N63W dominates
the remainder of the western Atlantic, where gentle to locally
moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. E of the
trough, another 1022 mb high pressure system located near 26N34W
is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of the
forecast waters. A cold front enters the forecast area near
31N31W and continues SW to near 28N37W. Another cold front
enters the forecast area near 31N43W and continues SW to near
22N49W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is N of 20N and E
of 50W while mostly moderate trades are seen across the tropical
Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in this area.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned frontal trough
will drift E-SE and weaken through tonight. A deep-layered upper
trough across the W Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to the
north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region
through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and
75W that will shift E and NE ahead of the trough. Weak high
pressure will begin to build across the basin in the wake of the
upper trough by early Thu, then shift slowly E-NE Thu night
through Fri night. A weak

$$
KRV