941
AXNT20 KNHC 052321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Cuba:
A deep layered upper-level trough from the W Atlantic to the
north-central Caribbean will sustain a diffluent pattern aloft
across the area through Friday. This will support the generation
of strong thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous lightning,
locally heavy rain, and gusty winds through Friday. Soils remains
saturated. So, the potential for flash flooding and mudslides
continues, especially in north-central Hispaniola Thu afternoon
and evening. Latest model guidance indicates a large area of
convection over Cuba compared to previous model runs. The
rainfall over Hispaniola and Cuba will be heavily influenced by
daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting.
Abundant moisture will remain in place, spreading over most of
Cuba and the Cayman Islands on Thu as another upper- level trough
reaches Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to
products from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 11N southward,
and moving west at around 10 kt. Convection is limited near the
wave axis.

A second tropical wave is near 43W/44W from 11N southward, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
behind the wave axis from 04N to 06N between 40W and 43W.

Another tropical wave is near 63W from 14N southward into
eastern Venezuela, moving west at around 20 kt. The wave is
enhancing convection over eastern Venezuela and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W then continues
southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N40W
to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection can be found from
05N to 10N between 11W and 20W, from 05N to 08N between 20W and
30W, and from 06N to 09N between 32W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1018 mb located near 31N70W extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is
resulting in moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft W
of 90W, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas E of
90W. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico
persist across most of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
The latest smoke graphic indicates a light concentration of smoke
across the area.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the basin through
the next several days. This pattern will support generally
moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the western Gulf,
fresh to occasionally strong winds near the Yucatan Peninsula,
and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through early
Fri. On Fri, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish
somewhat into the weekend. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 1 to 3 nm at times,
mainly over the southwestern half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a locally heavy rainfall event.

As previously mentioned, a persistent upper-level trough is helping
to induce numerous showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba. The San Juan Doppler radar also indicates showers
and thunderstorms over eastern Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin
Islands.

The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate E to SE winds
over the eastern Caribbean where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to locally moderate winds are observed
with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, a deep layered upper-level trough from the W
Atlantic to the north-central Caribbean will shift E-NE across
the Atlantic, with associated showers and thunderstorms spreading
from the north-central basin across the NE Caribbean through
Thu. Gentle to moderate E to SE trade winds will generally
prevail across the basin through Thu. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu
evening through Fri then gradually shift across south-central
portions through the weekend, as high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure situated
N of area near 32N48W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands into
the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong S to SW winds with seas of
8 to 10 ft are observed N of 24N and within about 130-150 nm
ahead of the trough axis. A large area of showers and thunderstorms
is on either side of the frontal trough S of 25N between 65W and
76W. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A diffluent
pattern aloft continues to support this convective activity. W of
the trough, high pressure of 1018 mb located near 31N70W
dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, where gentle to
locally moderate easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. E of
the trough, another 1020 mb high pressure system located near
27N31W is in control of the weather pattern across the rest of
the forecast waters. A cold front enters the forecast area near
31N28W and continues SW to near 29N38W. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is observed on scatterometer data N of 20N and
E of 50W while mostly moderate trades are seen across the
tropical Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in this area.

For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal trough will drift E-SE
and weaken through Wed night. A deep-layered upper trough across
the W Atlantic extending from near Bermuda to the north- central
Caribbean will shift E-NE across the region through Thu, and
maintain active thunderstorms between 55W and 70W that will shift
E and NE ahead of the trough. Weak high pressure will begin to
build across the basin in the wake of the upper trough Wed, then
shift slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front will move
into the far NW waters Sat and stall there Sun.

$$
GR