Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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225 FXUS61 KBGM 301807 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 207 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cool but otherwise fine day is expected across the region. Tonight will get quite chilly, with lows dipping into the middle to upper 30s in places. Dry conditions and a steady warming trend will commence Friday and Saturday. Except for a few showers in western areas Sunday, quiet and warm weather will continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 925 AM Update... No major changes to the near-term forecast. Updated current temperatures with a blend of observations and latest guidance. The challenge of the day will be assessing the chances for frost tonight. With current guidance showing unfavorable temperatures for frost, this morning`s low temperatures were slightly cooler in some higher terrain areas. With calm winds and clear skies tonight, we`re prime for radiational cooling again, which increases chances for slightly lower minimum temperatures overnight tonight, but chances are still low, and our confidence of frost development is also low at this time. We`ll keep monitoring changes in guidance through the day for the afternoon update. 410 AM Update... Steady rain continues across Sullivan and Pike Counties early this morning, but the well-defined back edge of rain will push east of the area shortly after daybreak (roughly 7 AM to clear the whole CWA). Farther west, clearing skies and rapidly dropping temps have allowed for valley fog to develop south of the Finger Lakes, especially Steuben and Chemung Counties. More could work its way east into Tioga and Broome Counties before dawn, though time is running short for any dense fog to develop. Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, but temperatures will still remain on the cooler side, with mid to upper-60s common, though Scranton and perhaps Syracuse could push the 70 degree mark. Continued drier conditions, clear skies, and light winds will lead to strong radiational cooling Thursday night into Friday morning. We`ve managed to drop to at least 41 at Ithaca and Cortland so far this morning, and conditions look more favorable for cooling tonight. Expect upper-30s to lower-40s for lows tonight, with a few spots dropping into the mid-30s. There`s slight chance for frost, especially Delaware County, but will let the day shift scrutinize the risk some more before considering headlines. Valley fog is also likely to develop again and be a little more widespread late tonight into Friday morning. Friday itself looks to be mostly sunny with temperatures beginning to tick upwards, back to the 70s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 200 PM update... High pressure will be in control on Saturday with a surface cold front and supporting upper wave moving in on Sunday. With warm core ridging squarely overhead, Saturday looks to be a pristine day with full sunshine and above normal temperatures. Dry air and clear skies begin Saturday night with radiational cooling expected to be strong. Thus, leaning on adjusting the NBM guidance closer toward its tenth percentile for the overnight minimum temperature. Increasing sky cover late may temper the cooling as compared to the previous few nights, thus expecting mainly lower-mid 50s instead of dropping well into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 PM update... The general pattern during this period indicates high pressure moving east and offshore with warmer southerly flow developing ahead of a slowly approaching frontal boundary through Wednesday. A deeper low pressure system will form over the northern Plains and move into the Great Lakes region by Thursday. The higher confidence in rainfall is actually during the Thursday time period where synoptic features moving into the area are more clear cut in the models with good support from ensemble guidance. The earlier part of the week is much more uncertain with deterministic global models offering up weak forcing and limited moisture resulting in generally dry solutions while several ensemble members appear to be wetter. Generally accepting the NBM mean guidance in this time frame with lowering modifications to the PoPs in deference to the very dry determininistic runs. Overall, the forecast will have low chance probabilities with broad timing as any weak upper level features are difficult to identify and time. Think there will be plenty of dry hours each day. Temperatures will gradually warm above normal with most areas in the lower 80s by mid-week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Consistent VFR conditions across Central NY and NE PA will continue through the rest of the TAF period, with possible exceptions to ELM and ITH. Current gusty north-northwesterly winds will taper off this evening, and become calm overnight. Fog development is possible at ELM and ITH, but guidance suggests probabilities are low for ITH, and slightly higher for ELM. We decided to include the trend of potential fog development for ELM heading into the early morning hours, but with confidence lower for ITH, we decided to hold off for now. Outlook... Friday through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR. Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...KL/MPH SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...