Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211041
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
641 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light showers will gradually diminish early this
morning across northeast Pennsylvania as low pressure moves off
the New Jersey coast. High pressure will build south over the
the region today bringing sunny skies and pleasant temperatures.
Friday will be mainly dry before a warm front approaches the
area Friday night and Saturday bringing showers along with a
chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 4 AM, local radars show scattered light showers across
northeast Pennsylvania. This activity will end around sunrise as
the low pressure system causing this activity moves off the New
Jersey coast. High pressure over eastern Canada will build south
over the area today bringing abundant sunshine and pleasant
temperatures. Highs will range in the middle to upper 70s with
valley areas in northeast Pennsylvania around 80. It will feel
rather comfortable with low dew points and a northerly breeze.

Tonight will feature clear skies and light winds as surface
high pressure drifts east to northern New England. Temperatures
will drop into the mid 40s to around 50 across central New York
and in the lower to middle 50s in northeast Pennsylvania.

For Friday, upper level ridge axis will shift east of the area
by late day as system in the mid west moves into the Ohio valley
by evening. Skies will become mostly cloudy by late day but
almost all areas will remain rain free as forcing is weak and
model soundings show dry air in the mid levels. Highs will range
in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving storm will slide out of Ohio and along the
NY/Canadian border this weekend. Showers will increase Friday
night ahead of an approaching warm front, then the warm front
will move into NY/PA on Saturday.

While surface instability is negligible on Saturday, lapse rates
are higher aloft. Showalter indices are negative across most of
the forecast area by Saturday afternoon, suggesting a chance for
thunderstorms.

The cold front will pass through NY/PA on Sunday, bringing
additional showers and another chance for thunder. Again,
instability looks weak. Much drier air follows the front late
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A quiet period is forecast between Monday and Wednesday. A few
stray showers will come to an end Monday afternoon over our
eastern forecast area as the upper level trough swings through,
then surface ridging will build in from the west, clearing
skies.

Temperatures will rise to around 80 on Tuesday, then into the
middle-80s by Wednesday under a building ridge.

Minimums will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief MVFR valley fog will continue at KELM through 13Z.
At KAVP a system passing to our south will keep 4K feet
ceilings until mid morning then just scattered cirrus.
Otherwise, conditions will be primarily clear through the TAF
period with just scattered cirrus today and clear skies tonight.
At this time it looks like airmass dropping down from eastern
Canada will be too dry for fog formation overnight.

Light and variable winds becoming N/NW by mid morning at 5-10
knots then light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Friday night through Sunday night...Showers and restrictive
conditions are possible.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM



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