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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181511
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
1111 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be unsettled today, with scattered rain showers and
drizzle around. Tonight into early Friday will be briefly dry,
before yet another front brings more showers Friday afternoon
and evening. The weekend is looking mainly dry, but breezy and
cool. Sunny and dry weather continues on Monday, along with
seasonably mild temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM Update

Our warm front remains just west of I-81 with clouds breaking
for some sun within the warm sector where temperatures are
responding nicely to the warmer air mass rising into the upper
50s to even near 60 around and just west of Route 17. However,
areas in the Catskills and Mohawk Valley, which remain on the
east side of the front, continue to be socked in clouds thanks
to high pressure building into northern New England which has
maintained a cold air damming signature. The strong low-level
inversion seen the 12 UTC ALY sounding is indicative of a cold
air wedged lodged near the sfc and temperatures will continue to
struggle to warm our of 40s through this morning, especially as
areas of drizzle and light showers reinforce the cool
temperatures. The NYS mesonet temperature maps highlight the
noticeably different air masses east and west of I-81 nicely.

Guidance suggests that light showers/drizzle in the Catskills
and Mohawk Valley should gradually dissipate this afternoon but
additional showers likely blossom along the stalled warm front
near or just west of the I-81 corridor as increased sun and weak
instability generates showers near the wind shift boundary.

Otherwise, still expecting a warm spring day for the Finger
Lakes with high temperatures reaching into the mid-60s as breaks
of sun combine with a swath of mild 850hPa isotherms ranging
+6C to +6.5C noses into this region. Temperatures trend
downwards heading east with the Catskills barely reaching into
the low 50s. The Susquehanna River Valley in NE PA will struggle
to break for sun but assuming a few breaks can occur, highs
should reach into the upper 50s while the surrounding higher
terrain areas will be cooler where clouds likely hang tough in
the low to mid 50s.

415 AM Update

Today features mostly cloudy to overcast conditions, along with
scattered pop up showers and areas of drizzle or light rain over
the eastern portion of the area. A nearly stationary warm
frontal boundary will be in place over the Central Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes, extending between one low pressure
system to the north of Georgian Bay and another off the NJ
coast. To the east of this boundary a moist east-southeast flow
will keep low overcast, drizzle and a few showers around all
day. Right in the vicinity of the front (near or just west of
I-81) this will be the focal point for pop up, slow moving
showers as some very modest daytime instability develops.
Overall, rainfall amounts will be light, generally under a tenth
or two of an inch. The other main story will be the drastic
temperature gradient on either side of this front. East of I-81
highs will only be in the mid-40s to lower 50s this afternoon.
Meanwhile, out across the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier
of NY it is forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Syracuse, Binghamton and Scranton should all see highs in the
mid to upper 50s...being very close to the front.

After some lingering drizzle in the evening over the Catskills,
Mohawk Valley and souther Tug Hill region it should gradually
dry out overnight. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, with
seasonable lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s. The pressure gradient
increases between the departing surface high over Atlantic
Canada and the next incoming front. This will allow southeast
winds to gradually increase between 7 to 15 mph overnight.

Timing details are beginning to come into better focus for
Friday. It now appears it will be dry in the morning, with
a rather narrow band of showers quickly moving in from west to
east by midday and into the afternoon hours. Model guidance
continues to be very light with the rainfall amounts, under a
tenth of an inch...except up to a quarter inch over Oneida
county. Soundings do show some mid level dry air, and the front
is running east into some upper level ridging. The parent
surface low is way north, over St. James Bay. Overall, not
expecting much rainfall from this system...so lowered PoPs into
the chance category for the Twin Tiers and most of NE PA...with
at least some shower activity still likely further north in
Central NY/Mohawk Valley. Otherwise, skies remain cloudy and
south winds are breezy between 10 to 20 mph. Seasonable, wit
highs in the mid-50s to lower 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update...

Rain showers remain across the region Friday evening as the weak
cold front pushes through the region. Most showers should be out
of the region by midnight, but a few lingering showers could
remain over the Catskills and Poconos during the overnight
hours as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s behind the departing
front.

High pressure doesn`t remain long as another trough swings into
the region Saturday. Overall synoptic moisture available for
this trough to interact with will be wanting, but moisture off
the lakes combined with sufficient lift from the trough and the
left exit region of a jet streak sitting over our region should
allow rain showers to develop across CNY during the afternoon
hours. We will still be under a cool airmass so temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 50s. WNW winds will also pick up
during the afternoon hours, with sustained values at 15-20mph,
gusting to 30mph.

Another surface high pressure system will build into the region
for the overnight hours, bringing calm conditons back to the
region. Because of the high pressure and NW flow continuing to
advect in a cool Canadian airmass, overnight temps will fall
into the low to mid 30s across the region.

High pressure remains over the region through Sunday night,
keeping conditions calm. Highs will again reach the low to mid
50s and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
325 AM Update...

High pressure dominates the weather pattern through Tuesday
morning as the center of the system will slide across the
eastern US, south of our region. This brings mostly westerly
flow that will advect in slightly warmer air from the midwest,
bringing temps into the upper 50s to mid 60s for the beginning
of the week.

The arrival of the next low pressure system has been delayed a
bit with the latest model guidance. Rain showers now are
forecast to move into the area Tuesday night and linger through
Wednesday evening. The strength and timing of the cold front
expected to accompany this low pressure system is still
uncertain, so NBM guidance was used here, bringing temps Wed
into the upper 40s to low 50s during the day and fall into the
low 30s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt restrictions around this morning...due
to showers and drizzle which are lowering CIGs. Fog has
developed at BGM bringing vbsys down below ALT Mins and close to
airport minimums at times...it is uncertain exactly when this
will lift/dissipate...best current estimate is by mid-morning as
the next round of light rain should mix the fog out a bit.

IFR CIGs will likely be situated over KRME, KBGM and KAVP
through the morning and midday hours. IFR CIGs may actually
develop after 18z at SYR as the moist, cool, easterly flow
increases. ITH is on the edge, and for now thought they may stay
MVFR Fuel Alt much of the day (with the SE downsloping wind).
ELM improves to MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt and stays there all day, with
bkn clouds around. BGM looks to now remain IFR the entire taf
period and as mentioned above, below alt minimums at times.

Surface winds are generally east-southeast 5 to 15 kts for most
taf sites over the next 24 hours. ELM could see a wind shift to
west-southwest later this morning depending on the warm frontal
position.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief
VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible
for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MJM/WFO ALY
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM