Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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462 FXUS61 KBGM 141045 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 645 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer weather is expected today with some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More rain showers with a few isolated thunderstorms move in after sunset as another warm front lifts into the region. Warmer but unsettled weather will continue into the end of the week with at least a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 645 AM Update... Matched temperatures to trends as valleys have cooled off faster. Temperatures will recover fast with mostly sunny skies. 430 AM Update... With a warm front north of our region, southerly winds have kept most of the region mixed as well as warmer than previous nights. Some of the deeper valleys have decoupled with light winds and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s with some fog development. Today, a broad upper level low will traverse through the mid Atlantic with some falling 500 mb heights that will help steepen mid level lapse rates. Instability will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg this afternoon with lessening CIN as the 500 mb shortwave moves in this evening. With the upper level low near by and our region under the trough, wind shear will be lacking with only 10 to 20 knots of shear. With dry air in the boundary below the storms, initial showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may be gusty but as deeper moisture advects in and saturates much of the atmosphere, there will just be garden variety showers and thunderstorms this evening. With continued warm air advection through tonight along with cyclonic vorticity advection aloft, showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely persist through the night into much of the day tomorrow. Precipitable water values are mostly between an inch to 1.25 inches and with overall weak lift, most areas will see around a half inch of rain to an inch of rain over the next 36 hours. Training showers and storms look unlikely given the cloud layer winds and storm motion vectors dont line up but with a warm front near by, if that stalls then under that stalled front locations could get over an inch of rain. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 335 AM Update... An exiting low pressure system south of the forecast area will maintain light rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday. We begin to see a decrease in rain showers heading into Thursday night as weak ridging pushes up into the forecast area. This will be a short-lived break before the next system moves into the area Friday late afternoon. Southwesterly flow allows for a warming trend, with temperatures recovering into the low- to mid-70s from the mid- to high-60s that will occur on Wednesday. Chances for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday across the Finger Lakes and northern Central NY region is possible, but will most likely be non-severe. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 335 AM Update... The next system drags a large cold front across our forecast area on Saturday, dropping high temperatures back down into the mid- to high-60s with rain showers. After Saturday, long-term model guidance is all over the place for what may happen. The ECMWF has the driest solution, with Central NY and NE PA remaining mainly dry heading into the early week. The GFS and Canadian models both have a solution where the main core of the system impacting our area through the early week with continuous rain showers and afternoon chances for thunderstorms. For now, we went with the wetter solutions, until there is a better trend of solutions that show a drier scenario. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z though a few scattered showers and thunderstorms develop mid afternoon that could mainly impact SYR, RME, and ITH. Confidence was too low to include any restrictions in the TAFs prior to 0Z as the showers and thunderstorms will be isolated. Tonight, better moisture moves in with rain with IFR or near IFR at most terminals but SYR and RME where southerly winds keep cigs higher with lighter rain. Outlook... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate to high confidence Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence. Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night into Saturday with showers and storms and associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...AJG