Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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325 FXUS64 KBMX 111836 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 This afternoon. Longwave troughing was over much of the Eastern Seaboard while amplified ridging was over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valley Region. A stationary front was draped from west to east roughly along the Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extended from Michigan south into Tennessee. Expect mostly sunny skies today with only some high-level clouds over the area. Winds will be from the north from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far northeast to the low 90s far southeast. Tonight. Broad ridging aloft will be positioned over the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region overnight while the stationary front remains to our south and surface high pressure extends from Upstate New York southwest into the Central Plains. Look for mostly clear skies tonight. Some brief patchy fog may develop near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will be from the north from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s far southeast. Wednesday. A weakness in the mid-levels will move southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the day Wednesday that will support a surface low to develop along the stationary front to our south. This feature will remain to our south but will move eastward through the day generally paralleling the Interstate 10 corridor. Skies will range from mostly sunny northwest to partly cloudy southeast on Wednesday. There will be a very small chance for a few showers or a stray storm to develop across our east and southeast counties in association with the surface low to our southeast during the afternoon, but residual dry air aloft looks to be a major limiting factor. I did draw in some PoPs but kept them below 10 percent based upon current thinking that dry conditions will likely prevail. Winds will become more east through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will increase areawide, ranging from the upper 80s far northwest to the low 90s south. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Wednesday night through Monday. The main story for the long term period will be the combination of hot and dry conditions, with the possibility of no rain through Monday or beyond. A warming trend will take hold on Thursday with widespread low 90s for highs as an upper-level ridge starts to move in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s in some areas on Saturday. Dewpoints being in the 60s should keep heat indices from being excessively high. By Sunday, significant disagreement becomes evident in model guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF has trended even farther west with this system while a ridge holds firm over the Southeast CONUS. This would lead to continued hot and dry conditions through Monday. However, the GFS tracks this system into Louisiana and Mississippi, bringing increased rain chances to Alabama. For this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier scenario portrayed in previous forecasts. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Some high clouds are moving northeast over the area, otherwise conditions are dry with low level winds from the north. Winds will be light overnight with low potential for some brief patchy fog near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure settles over the region. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to range between 30 to 40 percent, but remain above critical levels. Recovery RH values tonight will range from 75 to 95 percent. 20-foot winds will be at or less than 5 mph, from a north to northeasterly heading through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 89 62 92 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 59 90 65 92 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 61 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 64 90 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 62 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 93 68 94 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05