Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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880 FXUS64 KBMX 090853 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 This morning, we are watching a decaying MCS slide across western TN. The complex may barely slide into the area this morning, but should be just rain as it clips the northern tier of counties. A cold front will slowly work southward through the day. As it works through MS and northern AL, there is an overall consensus that a MCS will develop in northern MS and then move through Central Alabama. Given the location of the current MCS and prospects for a second MCS the idea is plausible. Based the current forecast on this process and continued the severe potential for this late afternoon through tonight. These storms will interact with a fairly unstable airmass characterized by 2500-3500 J/kg CAPE and 35-45kts of bulk shear. Even if the MCS does not develop, there is still a chance at individual storms developing and reaching severe potential. Looks like most of the storms will dissipate by Midnight. On Monday the front should continue to move south. Until it finally clears the area, there will need to be at least a small chance at showers/storms for the area. By the afternoon, the front will be very close to exiting the southeast. While there could be a stronger storm in the far southeast by early afternoon, really feel that the best convection will be to our south. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb. While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday, the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the forecast area remains dry. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024 VFR conditions for the next 12 to 15 hours. A band of showers and storms will likely develop in northern MS and then slide into the area by 21z. Look for showers and storms to impact the west by 22 to 23z, central 23 to 00z and then the east by 00 to 1z. The southeast may see activity at 1z. Went ahead and included all sites with a prob30 and will decide if we need to introduce higher chances with the 12 or 18z TAF issuances. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7 mph over the next few days, west-northwesterly today, and northerly on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon into tonight as a front moves across the area. Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible Monday afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 91 65 83 56 / 20 40 20 0 Anniston 92 68 83 58 / 20 40 20 0 Birmingham 94 68 84 60 / 20 40 20 0 Tuscaloosa 94 70 86 61 / 20 40 20 0 Calera 94 69 85 61 / 20 40 20 0 Auburn 93 71 85 63 / 10 30 30 10 Montgomery 95 72 88 64 / 10 40 30 10 Troy 95 71 89 64 / 10 30 40 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....87/Grantham AVIATION...16