729
FXUS64 KBMX 071845
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
145 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

This afternoon.

The forecast area is positioned between a longwave trough to our
east and broad and expansive ridging over much of Mexico and the
Southern Plains. Modeling depicts the quick movement of a mid-
level impulse southeastward over Eastern Alabama into Georgia this
afternoon through early evening. Surface Theta-E analysis shows
the presence of a weak front that extended near Demopolis
northeast to near Alexander City at the 1 pm hour. With the upper
support, this boundary will continue to move further southeast
through the rest of the afternoon.

Skies are sunny across the north and the western areas while
mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions were being experienced
across portions of our east and southeast counties where enough
residual moisture in the low to mid levels reside. Drier air will
continue to arrive from the northwest through the afternoon,
resulting the clouds becoming further confined to the southeast
through late afternoon. Dew points will also continue to decrease
through the 50s as the afternoon progresses with drier air mixing
down from aloft. Winds will be from the northwest at 8-16 mph and
breezy at times. Highs will range from the mid 80s far north to
the low 90s across the southern third of the area.

Tonight.

The longwave trough moves east off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
tonight while the broad and expansive ridge builds into the area,
becoming centered over Southeast Texas. The weak surface front
reaches the Northern Gulf Coast tonight while strong surface high
pressure expands over the Tennessee Valley Region.

Look for clear skies areawide overnight with winds from the north
and northeast from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures may fall into the
mid 50s in the normally colder more sheltered valley locations far
east and northeast with readings from the upper 50s northeast to
the low 60s far south.

Saturday.

Broad and expansive ridging will persist over the area with the
feature becoming centered further east over New Orleans on
Saturday. Surface high pressure will become centered across
Northeast Tennessee with dry conditions persisting locally. Some
disturbances aloft will rotate east around the ridging, resulting
in showers and storms to our north, but the only expected effects
for our area will be some additional mid to upper level clouds
spreading southward over our north and central counties. Winds
will become more southerly through the day with speeds from 5-10
mph. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and
northeast to the low 90s south and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

There is significant model disagreement in the long term period,
centered around the evolution of troughing over the eastern CONUS.
On Sunday, an upper-level ridge will weaken as it gets booted
from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Gulf of Mexico by a
developing trough to the northeast. Height falls and the approach
of a cold front could trigger isolated convection in our far
northern counties Sunday afternoon and evening.

Forecast confidence drops significantly for Monday and Tuesday.
The handling of a shortwave over the southern part of central
Canada is wildly different between the ECMWF and GFS. The ECMWF
leaves this shortwave behind and develops a deep eastern trough on
Monday. The GFS is much flatter with more zonal flow as the
trough over Canada gets pulled southward toward the Mississippi
Valley. The ECMWF solution would result in a nearly dry frontal
passage on Monday followed by dry conditions on Tuesday. The GFS
is completely opposite, with the frontal passage delayed in
response to a shortwave approaching from the northwest, leading to
wet conditions on Tuesday.

In general, there is model support for low POPs on Wednesday from
both models and perhaps a slow increase in moisture content for
Thursday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle with limited areas
of scattered clouds across the east and southeast portion of the
area this afternoon followed by clear skies areawide overnight.
Some limited high clouds will move over the northern sites on
Saturday but dry conditions will persist. Winds will be from the
north today at 7-14 kts, breezy at times through the afternoon
then will be from the north at 3-6 kts overnight followed by a
more easterly flow developing during the day Saturday with speeds
from 4-8 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air filters in today behind a cold front, with rain free
conditions expected areawide through Saturday night. Minimum RH
values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon and 30 to
40 percent Saturday afternoon. Overnight RH values will range
from 75 to 90 percent. 20ft winds will remain from the northwest
today, at 5 to 9 mph, before becoming light and variable on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  89  64  92 /   0   0   0  20
Anniston    58  90  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  62  92  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  60  92  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      59  90  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      62  90  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  60  90  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05