626
FXUS65 KBOI 140443 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
859 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...With moisture streaming in from the southwest
ahead of a dry cold front, virga/showers have developed this
afternoon and evening across the Southwest Highlands and
portions of the Magic Valley. Some have been strong enough to
produce lightning. However, webcams and ground observations support
that little to no rain has fallen from this activity so far, and
wind gust outflow has not made it above 25 mph at any observation
sites in the forecast area. However, the potential for rain,
lightning, and wind gusts still exists through tonight with storms
remaining active in NV. Northwest winds are on track to increase
late this evening into Friday due to the strengthening surface
pressure gradient with the cold front. High temperatures tomorrow
will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than they were today.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Patchy smoke from the Owyhee
mountains. Isolated virga/showers from NV will continue south and
east of KTWF through around 14/08Z. Gusts up to 25-35 kt and
occasional lightning expected. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Gusts 20-
30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO beginning after 14/04Z. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Hazy skies from fire in Owyhee mountains. Surface
winds: W to NW 5-12 kt. Gusts to around 20 kt Friday afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing high clouds Saturday, with
15 percent chance of showers in NE Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains. Afternoon winds increasing to W-NW 10-20 kt with
gusts to 20-25 kt, except 30-35 kt for KMUO to KJER/KTWF. Mid
and high clouds Sunday, with a 30 percent chance of rain/snow
showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains Sunday night.
Snow levels 6500-7500 ft MSL. Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt with
afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Southwest flow
aloft could bring just enough moisture out of Nevada for a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of Twin Falls
through this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. A pair
of `dry` cold fronts, one tonight and another Friday night, will
bring a pronounced cooling trend through Saturday as a large
low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska moves into the
northern Rockies by Saturday. Due to the general eastward track
of the low, moisture will remain too far to the north for any
appreciable chances of precip, with less than a 20 percent
chance of showers in the far north (north of Baker City and
McCall) on Saturday. Winds will be gusty at times, especially in
south-central Idaho where it will be windy Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures cool 5-10 degrees on Friday and another 10-15
degrees on Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good
agreement in depicting a low pressure system in the north
Pacific that moves into the Pacific Northwest (including our
area) early next week. The track of the low will determine the
location and amounts of precip, and it is still too early to pin
down with any real confidence. Latest guidance favors a track
that would bring the highest precip totals to Baker County and
central Idaho. Snow levels also lower to around 6500 feet. There
is at least a 60 percent chance of greater than an inch of
snowfall above 7000 feet in the northern mountains Monday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler with the
arrival of a cold front as highs will only be in the 60s across
the lower valleys Monday and Tuesday. Monday is also looking
quite windy with the passage of the cold front. The system exits
midweek followed by drier conditions and a gradual warming
trend as highs return to near normal on Thursday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW