988
FXUS61 KCAR 030146
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
946 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build eastward across Maine this evening before
settling southeast of the region by Wednesday afternoon. This system
will bring dry and warm conditions through Wednesday. An approaching
trough of low pressure will bring increasing clouds and humidity,
with a chance for isolated showers on Independence Day. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible over the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures will remain generally above early July
averages through the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:45PM Update...Will call it clear skies across the area as
diurnal cu has dried up and just a few areas of thin high cirrus
passing over but safe to call it clear skies tonight although a
few high cirrus will continue. There is some 9000ft clouds that
developed at sunset off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick
into portions of NE Aroostook. Latest Nighttime Microphysics
scheme satellite data shows those drying some but cannot rule
this out over the next several hours mainly confined to Caribou
to Hamlin in extreme NE Aroostook County. Temperatures are
cooling back to the 60s and winds becoming light and variable.
We are approaching the new moon so a great night for stargazing
minus the bugs!...

6:29PM Update...Minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast for sky
conditions. Adjusted the temps/dews based on obs trends. No
other changes.

3:30 PM Update...Tranquil weather is generally expected through
the near-term period. Fair weather cumulus clouds combined with
high level cirrus are in place this afternoon as a ridge of surface
high pressure builds eastward across Northern New England. We`ll
see cumulus clouds dissipate with the onset of diurnal cooling
this evening, and winds will generally become light and variable
for the overnight hours. With some high thin clouds continuing
to drift across the region, radiative cooling will be mitigated
slightly, with overnight lows generally in the mid-50s, with
upper-50s far Downeast.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure drifts offshore with a
developing S-SW flow (5-10 mph) across much of central and
northern Maine. High temperatures will again reach the low-mid
80s. However, it will be a touch more humid as 2-m dewpoints
climb into the mid- upper 50s, and locally near 60F at the
coast. Will see mostly sunny conditions in the morning, though
a trend toward filtered sunshine is possible in the afternoon as
mid- upper level clouds increase.

For Wednesday night, a decaying surface trough will approach
from the west during the overnight hrs. Continued S-SW gradient
flow and mid- level cloudiness will keep overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Generally dry for much of the night.
However, may see isold/sct rain showers reach northern Maine
during the pre-dawn hours Thursday. Max PoPs generally 40-45% in
the Allagash toward daybreak Thursday, with PoPs generally
remaining below 20% at BGR and points south and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm and somewhat humid conditions are expected for
Independence Day with highs in the low-mid 80s across the
interior. A stronger S-SW onshore flow on Thursday will keep
coastal sections in the low-mid 70s. Dewpoints will generally
climb into the lower 60s areawide. While large-scale forcing is
weak, modest cyclonic flow aloft and developing instability
during the afternoon hours across northern sections (SBCAPE
500-900 J/kg) may allow for a few showers or thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. PoPs are generally
20-30% across far northern/northwestern Maine. For Downeast
sections, the stabilizing influence of the onshore flow should
preclude any convective shower development closer to the coast.
May see some advection fog move into coastal sections during
Thursday night with onshore flow continuing through the
overnight period. Thursday night lows will remain in the upper
50s to lower 60s, coolest near the ocean.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal fog is possible through mid-morning on Friday.
Otherwise, a weak cold front moving through the region from NW-
SE should bring slightly cooler temperatures across the far
north (highs upper 70s to around 80F). Highs generally lower
80s near BGR and adjacent areas of interior Maine, and the weak
frontal bndry may be sufficient for a few showers during the
afternoon hours. Included just slight chance wording with PoPs
near 20%.

For the weekend, appears a strong warm front and attendant mid-
level trough will bring greater chances for showers and possible
thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. Included PoPs 40-60% on
Saturday and generally 40-50% for additional convective activity
possible on Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, mid-summer conditions
should prevail. Warm and humid conditions will continue into
the early part of next week, with highs 80-85F Monday and
Tuesday (cooler near the coast). Early indications are that SW
boundary layer winds across the state will bring dewpoints into
the mid-60s across northern Maine, and possibly in the 65-70F
range across the central and eastern interior.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period
with just scattered daytime fair weather cumulus clouds
(SCT050-060) and some passing high clouds thru 18Z Wednesday. No
precipitation is expected. Winds generally N-NE 5-10kts through
early this evening, becoming light and variable after sunset as
high pressure builds overhead. Winds becoming S-SE 5-10kts
toward late morning/early afternoon Wednesday as ridge axis
shifts to our east. No sig wx expected.

OUTLOOK: Slight chance of showers with VFR/MVFR conditions on
Thursday with winds becoming S-SW. Chances for marine stratus and
fog increase at BHB during Thursday night through mid-morning
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the upcoming
weekend with brief intervals of MVFR/IFR conditions possible at
the TAF locations.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas conditions will be below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through Wednesday, with wave heights generally 2-3
ft across the offshore waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas remain below small craft advisory levels
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Increasing chances for fog
Thursday eve/night, possibly lasting through mid-morning on
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...
Long Term...
Aviation...Sinko/
Marine...Sinko/