Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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059 FXUS62 KCHS 111156 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 756 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will meander near or just offshore the coast through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At sunrise, visible satellite and observations indicated widespread stratus across SE GA. The updated forecast will feature adjustments to hourly sky and include a patch of fog over the mouth of the Savannah River. The rest of the day should remain dry as mid-level heights gradually rise and high pressure builds in from the NW. A band of cirrus clouds may stream across SE GA through much of the day. Otherwise, shallow cumulus may develop along a sea breeze this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to peak in the upper 80s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 90s across SE GA. Tonight, the forecast area is expected to remain between a broad area of low pressure over FL and high pressure centered over middle TN/KY. This pattern should result in light and variable winds and thin cirrus through the overnight hours. Low temperatures should generally range around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An area of broad high pressure to our north will gradually build into the area through the week while a stationary front meanders just off the Southeast coast. This will result in a fairly decent moisture gradient across the area with a relatively dry air mass well inland and moisture-rich air streaming northeast over the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. A weak coastal trough will develop along the stationary front Wednesday into Thursday, potentially becoming more defined by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will largely be limited to the coastal waters in proximity to the boundary and weak trough/low, but there should be enough moisture and instability to generate at least isolated convection along the coast each day. The general thinking is that areas far inland will remain mostly rain-free, with coastal southeast Georgia being the prime location for sustainable convection (where the greatest moisture is located). However, there are hints that weak shortwave energy will move in on Thursday, potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime. Any convection that does develop should diminish later in the evening, at least over land areas. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday will increase to the mid 90s Friday. Lows will range from the upper 60s far inland to the lower 70s near the coast and mid 70s along the beaches both Wednesday and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep layered ridge will shift across the Southeastern US and prevail through early next week. Weak low pressure offshore should move out into the Atlantic as high pressure builds in from the north. However, there should be enough instability in place each day to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper 90s inland before dropping back down into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs: Visible satellite and observations indicated widespread stratus across KSAV. VLIFR ceilings are expected to remain over KSAV until 1330Z. It is possible that KCHS and KJZI could develop restrictive ceilings early this morning, too uncertain to feature in the TAFs at this time. Winds should begin the day from the north. However, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the afternoon, drifting over the terminals between 18-19Z. In the wake of the sea breeze, winds should turn from the SE and increase to around 10 kts. Winds are forecast to weaken after sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected; however, isolated convection could bring brief flight restrictions mainly in the afternoons. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms should track NE of the coastal waters early this morning. High pressure will gradually build over the waters today, yielding north winds this morning. A sea breeze should develop this afternoon, winds should turn from the SE and increase to around 10 kts. Seas should remain between 2-3 ft today. The marine zones are expected to remain between a broad area of low pressure over FL and high pressure centered over middle TN/KY tonight. Winds should favor a direction from the east, generally around 10 kts. Seas should remain between 2-3 ft, some 4 ft seas are possible across the outer GA waters late tonight. Wednesday through Sunday: Broad high pressure to the north with a weak area of low pressure to the south will result in winds predominately out of the east-northeast through Friday. Low pressure could become better defined in the coastal waters later this week or this weekend causing winds to shift briefly out of the west. Wind speeds will average 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...BRM LONG TERM...BRM AVIATION...BRM/NED MARINE...BRM/NED