832
FXUS61 KCLE 220807
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
407 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the central United States will enter the Great
Lakes region tonight and cross into eastern Ontario by Sunday.
This system will extend a cold front across the local area
Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build into the region
behind the front on Monday and remain for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All in all, the weather for Saturday appears to be relatively
quiet, but still a hot and humid day with one final day with
heat risk as heat index values approach the 100 degree mark.
Return flow across the region in the warm sector of a low
pressure system will allow for south to southwest winds to
increase across the area this afternoon. Some slight warm air
advection with the flow will push temperatures slightly higher
than yesterday with widespread 90s and perhaps some mid-to-upper
90s for a large portion of northern Ohio. However, the increased
winds will allow for some mixing and this may drive down dew
points just slightly into the mid 60s and heat index values will
only be near 100 at times this afternoon. Portions of interior
NE OH and NW PA could remain slightly stagnant with less mixing
and that could actually allow for some isolated showers/storms,
but confidence is pretty low.

For tonight into Sunday, the low pressure system will translate
across the Great Lakes region and extend a cold front across the
forecast area. Showers and storms will develop north and west of
the region today and the remnant storms will enter before dawn
on Sunday. Storms will be entering a more stable air mass as
they enter toward daybreak and should be on a decreasing trend
in intensity and coverage, but the Day 1 Marginal Risk for
severe weather does clip Northwest Ohio for any lingering storms
with a bite with a strong to severe wind threat. Depending on
the evolution of overnight convection, storms will fire in a
destabilizing air mass ahead of a cold front early Sunday
afternoon, or the atmosphere will need a stronger lift
immediately with the front later in the afternoon. Regardless,
storms are expected at some point during Sunday afternoon and
have a mix of likely and categorical PoPs. Strong instability
ahead of the front will allow for storms to have a damaging wind
and/or large hail threat. Better coverage of strong to severe
storms is expected east of the area where the Day 2 SPC Slight
Risk is located, but depending on trends late tonight, this
could be pulled west into the area once it rolls over to the Day
1 outlook.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
eastern tier of counties early Sunday night before high pressure
begins to build east across the area resulting in widespread dry
conditions returning. The exception will be far NE OH and NW PA
where isolated showers are possible through Monday morning as a
surface trough lingers. Although a ridging pattern will become
established south of the area, a generally zonal pattern will
develop across the northern US with a couple troughs moving east.
The next trough is expected to move east on Tuesday will allow a low
pressure centered over Canada to move a warm front north across the
area and again introduce the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Initial potential will be more scattered in nature
as the area lingers in the warm sector of the low, but by Tuesday
night the associated cold front will begin to move east bringing a
more widespread potential across the area. It is important to note
that this is general timing as models are not quite in agreement
with the timing yet.

High temperatures on Monday will climb into the mid 80s across the
western counties and only into the upper 70s for eastern counties.
These temperatures will average an 10 degree rise for Tuesday as WAA
and increased moisture push north ahead of the cold front. Overnight
lows will follow a similar pattern with Sunday and Monday nights
falling into the low to mid 60s, but only falling into the 70s
Tuesday night ahead of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will likely start out with widespread showers
and possibly thunderstorms as a cold front continues to make its way
east across the area. As mentioned previously, the exact timing of
this frontal boundary remains a bit uncertain as models are not
consistent, but kept chance PoPs to start of the long term. By
Wednesday night, all models suggest high pressure again building
over the area and allowing conditions to dry out once more. This
system will continue to influence the area through Friday.
Temperatures through the long term period are looking to be closer
to normal for this time of year with much of the area seeing 80s on
Wednesday and Friday, but dipping into the upper 70s to low 80s on
Thursday which will be a much needed cool down. Overnight lows will
generally linger in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The airspace will be in the warm sector of a low pressure system
that will move through the Great Lakes region this weekend.
Return flow across the region will allow for a typical generic
warm sector with increased southwest flow and afternoon cumulus.
Unlike previous days, believe the forecast will be mainly dry
with winds allowing for dew points to mix out and prevent
widespread clouds and any precipitation. Cumulus will fade with
sunset and wind gusts will settle overnight. Mid and high clouds
will enter late in the TAF period as the associated cold front
with the low pressure system approaches from the northwest and
any precipitation mention will be after 06z/Sun.

Outlook...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday
afternoon with non-VFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions will continue today as a near stationary
boundary moves north as a warm front. Behind the warm front, winds
will become established from the southwest at 5-10 knots. As the
parent surface low tracks northeast across the western Great Lakes
Saturday night, an increased pressure gradient ahead of the
approaching cold front will increase southwest winds across Lake
Erie to 15-20 knots, gusting as high as 25 knots at times across the
open waters. As the aforementioned cold front moves east on Sunday,
winds will gradually shift and become northwesterly at 10-15 knots.
During this entire period from Saturday night through Sunday, marine
headlines may be needed to account for increasing wave height and
increasing risk of rip currents. By Monday morning, high pressure
again builds over the area and winds from the northwest will return
to 5-10 knots into Tuesday. Another warm front will move north
across the lake Tuesday followed by a cold moving east on Wednesday.
High pressure will return for the end of the work week. No
additional marine headlines are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The records for Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official
climate sites.

Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-22  99(1988)   95(1988)    98(1988)   97(1988)   97(1933)    94(1988)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Campbell
CLIMATE...CLE