691
FXUS64 KCRP 251929
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
229 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Message:

 Dangerous heat increases tomorrow!

There hasn`t been much change since the previous forecast. A weak
upper-level ridge continues to build into the region this
afternoon, leading to well-above normal temperatures and dew
points tonight and tomorrow, causing elevated heat indices across
South Texas. As with the last few days, minimum heat indices will
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s tonight, resulting in poor
overnight recovery. Therefore, the current Heat Advisory and
Excessive Heat Warning have been extended through 7 AM tomorrow.

Temperatures and dew points are expected to increase by a few
degrees tomorrow and spread eastward as subsidence intensifies.
High temperatures will range from the mid 90s along the coast to
100-110 degF from about I-37 westward. With dew points forecasted
between the low 70s to low 80s, a major (level 3 out of 4) to
extreme (level 4 out of 4) risk of heat-related impacts is
expected, with heat indices ranging between 110-125 degF. We are
highly confident that another Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning will be needed tomorrow. There is also high certainty
that the Excessive Heat Warning will need to expand eastward and
northward. However, we will wait to issue those hazard products
until the current warnings expire. Bottom line: expect another day
of significant to extreme heat-related risks tomorrow and into
the evening.

As the Memorial Day Holiday weekend continues and many of you will
be participating in outdoor activities, please practice heat
safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing,
recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and
ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets
too by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and
shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites
for cooling center locations and hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

 Major to extreme heat related impacts through much of next week

 Isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday

A mid-level ridge over the region will continue to promote
subsidence and warm low-level temperatures. This will lead to
continued major to extreme heat-related risks across much of the
region. The ridge is expected to breakdown late Monday/early Tuesday
and will allow for a little relief the rest of the week.
Temperatures will drop a few degrees and will also allow for an
increase in rain chances as a few shortwaves traverse around the
periphery of the High throughout the week. Have a low (20%) chance
for showers/thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday night with
lack of surface lift and upper level support as the limiting factors
although dynamics look better north and east of the region where SPC
(Storm Prediction Center) has clipped northeastern Victoria county
in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday into
early Tuesday.

Monday is also the hottest day in the forecast period with surface
temperatures of 90-110 degrees combining with above normal moisture
will result in heat indices up to 115-120 degrees. A Major to
extreme heat related risks that could affect anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with little to no
overnight relief. Despite a slight decrease in temperatures the heat
related risks for the remainder of the week will continue to be
Major to extreme likely due to the number of hot days, little to no
relief overnight could lead to heat build-up in the body making it
more susceptible to heat related illness. The rest of the week will
have surface air temperatures ranging 90-105 and lows 75-80 degrees
under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR ceilings are currently in place across all terminals, and
this is expected to continue until late this evening into the
overnight hours. Eastern sites will reach MVFR ceilings between
03-06Z with the west expected to experience MVFR ceilings by
11-12Z. By mid to late tomorrow morning, most sites should be back
to VFR with a few lingering MVFR ceilings.

MVFR visibilities remain in place over ALI, COT, and VCT due to
the continued presence of haze. A low chance of some patchy fog
may occur tomorrow morning over all terminals. With the exception
of ALI, visibilities should not decrease below 4 SM.

Winds will once again remain elevated this afternoon with gusts up
to 25 knots. Winds will decrease after sunset before picking back
up again late tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected through tomorrow with
a low chance for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions (winds
around 20 knots or greater). Seas are expected to remain around
4-5 feet tonight before increasing to 5-6 feet tomorrow. Dangerous
heat indices are expected tomorrow, ranging from 110-115 degrees.
Generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the
most of next week becoming Moderate flow towards the end of the
week. Expect warm temperatures with heat indices in the mid to
upper 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  99  79  97 /   0  10  10   0
Victoria          78  99  77  99 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            81 110  82 109 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             79 104  78 102 /   0  10  10  10
Rockport          81  93  81  92 /   0  10  10   0
Cotulla           80 109  81 107 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        80 102  79  99 /   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       82  94  82  92 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ229-230-
     239>243.

     Heat Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ231>234-244>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...KRS/98