332
FXUS63 KDDC 241715
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated to scattered shower possible this morning
  but measurable precipitation is unlikely

- Expected highs for rest of the week averaging between about
  77-84 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers were added with slight chances (15%) across the eastern
sections of the area (Wakeeney-Hays and south through the
highway 183 corridor and eastward) through about noon. This a
result of upstream MRMS composite reflectivity showing a broad
area of rain, void of any lightning moving southeast across most
of central Nebraska in to northern Kansas associated with a
broad 700-400mb differential vorticity advection. HREF CAM
members to varying degrees spread this light reflectivity south
and east through central Kansas through the mid morning. Sun
should return by afternoon following the cloudiness and possible
light rain of the morning. As for the mean 24hr QPF multiple
run trends , the ec ensemble mean does how minimal QPF ( Hays
0.02 and Pratt 0.01) Tuesday Night  while the GEFS is
completely dry. The NBM has removed any appreciable POPs,
meaning measurable rain, from the forecast for this timeframe
(10% or less).

Appreciable pops have been removed by the NBM going forward as
well through the next weekend and beyond. The breezy conditions
of this afternoon will be the strongest winds of the week as
persistent surface ridging to the northeast provides light and
variable winds overnight, mixing out to light and easterly in
direction each afternoon.

Looking farther out, the CPC outlook for days 8-14,
specifically the first week of October, describes temperatures
leaning above normal (a 40 to 50 percent chance), and
precipitation leaning below normal (also a 40 to 50 percent
chance).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Widespread ceilings at or above 12000 ft AGL can be expected
over the next few hours as an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas. Gusty north winds of 15 to 20 knots during the
afternoon will decrease to less than 10 knots after 00z
Wednesday as surface high pressure begins to build into western
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert