Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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470 FXUS63 KDDC 081900 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...Updated Short/Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A large complex of thunderstorms is expected to cross Southwest Kansas Saturday night, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary risks. The highest risk of damaging wind is expected to focus along and north of US 50. - Low clouds and much cooler Sunday. - A rapid warming trend is expected next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Midday surface observations depicted a stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity of the KS/OK border, with northeast winds prevailing across SW KS. Moisture convergence was already increasing along this boundary, with CAPE already exceeding 2000 J/kg, but expectation is for all convection to remain capped through 7 pm, with forcing still removed, and an inversion in place. The boundary will lift northward some through sunset, with winds becoming more upslope/easterly, in response to the approaching shortwave over the Colorado Rockies. Despite the easterly boundary layer winds, temperatures will warm easily into the mid 80s north, to the mid 90s adjacent to Oklahoma. MU CAPE of 3-4,000 J/kg is expected to be common across SW KS by evening. Still, removed all pops through 7 pm, with 12z ARW/NAM dry through this time. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to initiate as supercells over northeast Colorado through 7 pm, evolving from the Front Range, then rapidly grow upscale into an intensifying MCS (mesoscale convective system) and enter the northwest zones in the 8-9 pm time range. The environment this evening will favor rapid cold pool/ outflow clustering, as the maturing MCS interacts with the expected instability reservoir, producing bow echoes and potentially particularly damaging winds. Wind gusts of 60-80 mph are expected along the apexes of the strongest bowing segments, probably favoring north and west of DDC this evening. Wind- driven enhanced probability remains valid, with a much less threat of hail greater than one inch in diameter. All convection will be linear in nature in SW KS, so any tornado risk will be very limited, and tied to QLCS mesovortex spinups along the leading edge of the outflows when the MCS is near maturation this evening. Damaging winds are of particular concern during early summer weekends, when many are outdoors enjoying recreational activities, away from shelter. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings; some warnings will carry the destructive tag and trigger WEA alerts on mobile devices when forecast wind gusts reach 80 mph. Remain weather aware, and have a plan in place to find shelter ahead of this thunderstorm complex tonight. Damaging wind risk remains focused along and especially north of US 50, with a 7 pm through 2 am time slot for the highest impacts. Hatched probability (10% or greater)of significant gusts (> 75 mph, hurricane force) is focused across the northern half of the DDC CWA. MCS is expecting to be exiting into central Kansas by 1 am Sunday per the fastest guidance, 4 am per the slowest. All models show widespread low stratus filling in developing behind the exiting complex, as the MCS outflow pushes the old frontal boundary southward again. Kept northeast winds toward the strongest side of guidance through sunrise Sunday. Sunday will be much cooler, with the combination of strong cold advection (for June standards) and stratus working to hold temperatures down through at least early afternoon. GFS/NAM agree with an 850 mb temperature reduction of 6-9C compared to Saturday, and where stratus can hold much of the day, afternoon temperatures will be reduced to the refreshing 70s. Temperatures are expected to fall back into the 50s Monday morning as weak high pressure arrives in Kansas, but lingering cloud cover will limit the cooling potential. Some overrunning/warm advection related elevated showers/storms are possible favoring the southwest zones Sunday night, but the forecast may be too wet here, with much of this activity likely remaining south of SW KS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Emphasis for additional rainfall and thunderstorms will transfer to the west and south of SW KS on Monday. Pops will strongly favor the southwest and western zones Monday, given moist SEly upslope fow, and a midlevel weakness persisting near southeast Colorado. Clouds will also be more prevalent across these western zones Monday, with temperatures running several degrees below early June normals. Midlevel shortwave trough or weakness is forecast to drift eastward in the vicinity of SW KS through Tuesday, and NBM correctly keeps chance category pops for showers and thunderstorms for this feature. Flow and shear will be very weak, but precipitable water will be high, favoring non-severe disorganized/pulse convection with locally heavy rainfall through Tuesday. All models show aggressive warming Wednesday, as the weak shortwave slides southeast of SW KS, and heights aggressively build overhead. 12z EPS ensembles show a strong midlevel high over 594 dm in strength building from Mexico toward Albuquerque, New Mexico by 7 pm Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will soar easily into the lower 90s, and NBM may be too slow with the magnitude of the warmup. The Mexican heat ridge builds even stronger Thursday, with heights climbing well over 590 dm over SW KS. 12z MEX forecasts a high of 99 at DDC Thursday, and GEFS ensemble probability of 2m T > 100 is already 70-80% Thursday afternoon. Given the very hot ensemble means, deterministic solutions and NBM/MEX may not be hot enough, but regardless, Thursday is expected to be hottest day so far this young summer season. How much more rain we put in the topsoils between now and then will play a role with any evaporative cooling, and whether we can avoid triple digit heat. For non-summer lovers, the good news is this heatwave is temporary, as ECMWF EPS shows a shortwave trough eroding the ridge, reducing heights and introducing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Pops and cooling trend from the NBM for next Friday and Saturday were accepted. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Good flying weather will continue through 00z Sun, with VFR persisting, a mix of mid and high clouds, and NE winds averaging 10-15 kts. High confidence of a large thunderstorm complex impacting the airports overnight. Using 12z ARW as a guide, included convective TEMPO groups in the TAFs for GCK/DDC/HYS during the 03-06z Sun timeframe. Primary risk will be outflow winds in excess of 50 kts with the strongest storms. Activity may remain north of LBL, so only included a VCTS/CB mention for now. After the MCS exits, all models show widespread IFR/LIFR stratus at all airports by 12z Sun, and this trend was accepted in this TAF issuance. Stratus may hold much of Sunday before VFR returns. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner