053
FXUS63 KEAX 271724
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather is expected for today through Wednesday with
  near seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday into
  the weekend, although forecast confidence and clarity for this
  time period remains relatively low at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Fairly strong shortwave trough is moving southeast across IA
early this afternoon. Forcing associated with this shortwave is
leading to more numerous showers and storms across northern MO.
Instability will remain relatively weak with MLCAPE values
around 500 J/kg. Effective shear is strong though so there may
be some small hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. The
threat of severe weather remains low given the weak instability.
Given the increased coverage of precipitation, have added or
increased PoPs to northern and northeastern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

GOES 16 mid level water vapor imagery with 500 mb heights
superimposed shows troughing over much of the central CONUS
with a strong mid level jet extending across the Ozarks and
into the Ohio Valley. Widespread convection is ongoing across
much of the Mid South, Tennessee Valley, and Appalachia along
and ahead of an analyzed surface cold front and convectively
driven outflow boundaries. Meanwhile, a reinforcing cold front
has made its way through the region from north to south Sunday
evening and early this morning associated with a 996 mb surface
low currently centered over northern Lake Michigan. This
provided just enough forcing to help generate a few isolated
severe storms Sunday evening within an environment of around
1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and around 30 knots of 0-6 km wind shear.
The most impressive storm of these produced 2 inch plus hail
from near Princeton to Milan and Macon. These storms have since
dissipated, leaving generally clear skies, light northwesterly
winds, and temperatures in the 60s this morning.

Mid level troughing remains over the region today, with surface
high pressure building in and sliding into NE Oklahoma. The
result will be a generally pleasant day for the Memorial Day
holiday, with mostly clear skies and seasonal high
temperatures. A strong low to mid level jet is progged to
develop over NW Missouri by mid afternoon as a subtle shortwave
trough translates through the central CONUS, which could yield a
decent west northwesterly afternoon breeze (up to 15 mph),
especially for NW and northern Missouri. Seasonal temperatures
are expected yet again for Tuesday, and with some drier theta-e
advection, mid afternoon dewpoints are forecast to be only
around 50 degrees, making it feel quite comfortable. Northwesterly
flow aloft remains in place for Wednesday as the region will be
between troughing to the east and a building, moderately
amplified mid level ridge over the Plains. The result will yet
again be seasonal temperatures under generally clear skies.

By Thursday, a mid/upper trough is projected to move across the
Intermountain West and into the Northern High Plains,
suppressing the ridge, with a few subtle perturbations moving
into the Central Plains and a surface low developing east of the
Front Range. This should yield increased southeasterly surface
flow and theta-e advection, with chances for showers and storms
moving in from the west by Thursday afternoon and evening.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Friday and
Saturday as models suggest the possibility of continued
shortwave troughs or embedded perturbations traversing within
the mid level flow. Confidence is not particularly high in how
exactly things will play out for late week into the weekend. The
01z NBM for MCI shows large spread in the possible range of
outcomes for accumulated rainfall (QPF), as does the GEFS, whose
ensemble mean for rainfall at MCI through Saturday night is
around 1.4 inches, but has members ranging from very little QPF
to a few members showing up to 3 inches of QPF. The Weather
Prediction Center does have western portions of our region
within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday and
Thursday night and all of our region within a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last through the duration of the TAF
period. Winds are expected to shift to the northwest slowly as the
day continues. There may be a few gusts in the lows 20kt range
this afternoon. Winds will weaken as mixing diminishes this
evening. Cloud coverage is expected to remain clear/ mostly
clear through the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier