888
FXUS63 KEAX 190354
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1054 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday.

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
  tomorrow afternoon/evening.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  weekend into Monday. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will
  be possible.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for early to middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows a well
defined closed low spinning over northeastern Montana with
troughing extending southward into the central High Plains.
Meanwhile, an anticyclone resides over northern Mexico with
ridging and warm 850 mb temperature anomalies extending
northward into the south central Plains. At the surface, a north
south oriented cold front is draped across central Nebraska
into western Kansas. This helped generate some showers and
storms over Kansas this morning, but these dissipated well
before encroaching on our region. Current conditions across the
region are quite warm, with 3 pm temperatures in the mid 80s to
as warm as 90 degrees with breezy southerly winds.

The aforementioned closed low over NE MT continues to slowly
move northeastward into southern Manitoba by late tonight, with
a relatively strong south southwesterly low level jet projected
to develop late tonight into early tomorrow morning across
central and eastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska, nosing
its way into NW Missouri by mid tomorrow morning. This will
likely develop some isolated to scattered convection overnight
across eastern Kansas, moving eastward into our area (far
eastern KS, western MO, NW MO) tomorrow morning and early
afternoon. Mid level ridging strengthens tomorrow afternoon,
with higher mid level heights overspreading the region. This
will help send afternoon highs into the low to mid 90s for most
locations. Additionally, increased moisture advection and
pooling out ahead of the cold front should send dew points into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will yield max afternoon heat
indices in the mid 90s to potentially as warm as 100 degrees.
This will also yield a corridor or moderate instability (2000 to
3000 J/kg of MU CAPE) tomorrow afternoon and evening. This will
be paired with up to 30 knots of deep layer shear, and could
yield some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms along and
ahead of the surface cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening.

On Friday, the northern trough continues its pivot northward
into Canada. However, a new closed low and associated trough
comes ashore into Southern California, with ridging remaining
firmly entrenched over our region. Hot temperatures should
continue, with highs in the low to mid 90s once again for most
locations. The good news is that dew points should be much lower
behind the weak cold front, so conditions for Friday afternoon
should not be quite as uncomfortable.

The western trough is progged to move across the Southern
Rockies and into the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon and
evening. This will increase moisture return, and with increased
forcing for ascent from the approaching trough, chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for Saturday.
Chances increase even further Saturday night into Sunday as the
trough and associated surface low makes its final approach into
the area. With increased west southwest flow overspreading the
region on Sunday, wind shear should increase to 40+ knots. This
may allow for some strong to severe storms, and SPC has
discussed the possibility of introducing 15 percent severe
probabilities to portions of our area for Sunday. Relatively
high PWATs will allow for the potential for locally moderate to
heavy rainfall, and WPC has much of the region highlighted
within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday and
Sunday. Total rainfall accumulations have trended down just a
little bit, with 1 to 2" of rain forecast for much of the area
for the weekend.

Precip chances should largely come to an end from west to east
on Monday as the cold front pushes through the area. Much cooler
temperatures are also anticipated, with highs in the 70s
forecast for Monday through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Most of the overnight hours will remain quiet, but will be
watching showers west of the area moving through that could
reach the terminals during the morning hours of Thursday. CAMs
have been more consistent with activity, so have placed -SHRA in
the metro TAFs this morning. Those should move out, and then
will be waiting for redevelopment in the late afternoon. There
is some potential for storms over the terminals, but storms
could quickly move eastward. Overall, cloud bases look to be
VFR. If a heavy rainshower moves over the terminal, this may
result in brief MVFR or IFR conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Krull