Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 221720

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1220 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 345 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

Early this morning, light return are showing up on radar imagery
across northern Missouri. These returns are being caused but subtle
shortwaves moving through the area on northwest flow aloft. These
returns are falling from clouds with bases between 8-10kft and has
dry air to overcome below that. Consequently, anything that is
reaching the ground is most likely very light. These shortwave are
expected to bring cloud cover and light showers to northeastern
Missouri through the day today. This will lead to quite a
temperatures spread across the area with temperatures only reaching
the lower 50s across northeastern Kansas and the low to mid 60s
elsewhere. Stratus is expected to advect northward into the area and
increase overnight into Friday morning. This increasing stratus will
lead to the potential for some drizzle on Friday morning. Friday
afternoon, a warm front will lift into the CWA as a southwesterly
LLJ noses into the area. This will allow showers to develop along
and north of the warm front across northern and central Missouri.
The warm front bisecting the CWA will also lead to a similar
temperature spread to today with highs in the low to mid 50s across
northeastern Missouri to the low to mid 60s across the rest of the
CWA. Friday night a upper level shortwave will eject out from the
southern Rockies into the Central Plains. This will force a cold
front into the area. Thunderstorms will be possible as the cold
front moves through the area however, they are not expected to be
severe with weak instability. Moisture, however, will be plentiful
for this time of year with PWATs in the 1.10"-1.30" range. This will
provide the chance for moderate showers. Showers will exit the area
from west to east on Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s to
the north and the mid to upper 50s to the south.

The extended forecast period will start off dry on Sunday with highs
generally in the 50s. However, the rest of the extended period looks
active. The main catalyst will be a upper level trough that will dig
through the Rockies as it slowly moves eastward. This will leave the
area under southwest flow aloft. Several lead shortwaves ejecting
out ahead of the main trough will bring the chance for a few rounds
of showers Sunday night through Monday. Monday/Monday night a low
while cut off in the base of the trough over the southwestern CONUS
while  the northern extend of the trough moves into the northern
Plains. This will force another cold front into the area on Monday
night. Thunderstorms may again be possible with instability again
being the limiting factor. However, PWATs will again be very high
between 1.25"-1.40" which is 200%-300% above normal for this time of
year. This could potentially bring another round of moderate to
heavy precipitation to the area although at this time the better
chance for heavier rain looks to be across southern Missouri. Showers
will continue through Tuesday as the cold front slowly slides south
through the area. High pressure is progged to build into the region
Wednesday perhaps providing the chance to dry out.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

VFR conditions should persist through the day; if any diurnal cu
develops it should be very limited in coverage and will be based
above 3 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12-15 kts
through the afternoon, then will back slightly toward the east
and diminish a bit this evening. A deck of stratus will develop
around 5-6 kft after midnight, then will progressively lower as
the atmosphere saturates toward sunrise. A few very light showers
or drizzle is possible Saturday morning, but will focus mainly
east of the terminals.




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