023
FXUS64 KEPZ 172336
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and dry weather will transition into cooler and wetter weather
later in the week. A tropical system from the gulf of mexico will
bring moisture which will give the region a chance of drizzle by
the end of the week. Lingering moisture will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Currently, there is a trough situated in the Pacific Northwest,
which is moving eastward. This trough will stay far north of the
region, but will allow for a lowering of geopotential heights.
This lowering of heights will keep temperatures away from record
levels. However, southwesterly flow will allow warm air advection
(WAA) to continue and highs will be hot in the low 100s. Dry
weather is expected as most moisture remains to our east. Breezy
winds will remain. These hot, dry, and breezy conditions will
continue into the middle of the week.

An inverted trough will be pushed onshore from the Gulf of Mexico
in south-eastern Texas on Wednesday due to a large area of high
pressure in the southern US. This inverted trough will bring
onshore a large amount of moisture. The high pressure in the
southern US will steer this moisture plume to the region. Higher
elevations will start to be impacted late Wednesday with a chance
of thunderstorms. The lowlands will start experiencing effects on
Thursday. Winds will become southeasterly and PWATs will soar to
1.0 to 1.3 in across the region. Soundings show that the moisture
layer will be quite shallow with cloud ceilings as low as 1500ft
in the lowlands. A subsidence inversion will prevent convective
storms from forming through Friday, so rainfall will be stratiform
in nature. Cloudy conditions with drizzle are expected for
Thursday and Friday. QPFs will be low at less than 0.02 in for
the lowlands. Higher elevations will see heavier rain with
QPFs of up to 0.2 in. Temperatures will cool into the low 90s in
the lowlands due to extensive cloud cover.

The high over the southern US will set up
over the region over the weekend. High temperatures will warm
back up into the low 100s and winds will become light and variable.
This high pressure will trap lingering moisture in the region and
allow for convective storms to form. This chance of thunderstorms
will remain into early next week with the higher elevations having
a greater chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. Smoke from the
Sacramento Mtns could cause slightly lowered visibilities
overnight in those mountains. Surface winds west 12-15G25 knots
diminishing after 03Z to west/northwest AOB 8 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Elevated fire danger continues this evening with southwest winds
15 to 20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds peaking in the late afternoon
with Excellent smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Winds
will be a bit lighter on Tuesday with similar conditions
otherwise.

Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from
the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud
coverage Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be much
cooler those days under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, with
gusty and erratic outflow winds and possible new lightning starts.
Monsoon season well underway next week with continued daily storm
chances and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 101  73 103 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            67  96  66  95 /   0   0  10  20
Las Cruces               67  99  67 102 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               65  97  65 100 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft               52  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  40
Truth or Consequences    66  97  67  98 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              60  88  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   62  98  62 100 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                62  95  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       71  98  71 101 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                65 100  65  97 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             67 101  66 103 /   0   0  10  20
Loma Linda               66  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                   69 100  67 103 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             66  97  65 100 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           75  97  72 100 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            63  97  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    65  99  62 102 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 67  98  68 101 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                66  96  65  98 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  58  88  54  85 /   0   0   0  50
Mescalero                55  86  54  86 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                 54  84  53  85 /   0   0   0  30
Winston                  53  89  53  90 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                62  94  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                60  96  60  98 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             55  87  56  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   57  92  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  96  56 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  89  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  60  91  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   61  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  96  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  95  62  99 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale               60  89  61  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner