892
FXUS64 KEPZ 180550
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1150 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and dry weather will transition into cooler and wetter weather
later in the week. A tropical system from the gulf of mexico will
bring moisture which will give the region a chance of drizzle by
the end of the week. Lingering moisture will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Currently, there is a trough situated in the Pacific Northwest,
which is moving eastward. This trough will stay far north of the
region, but will allow for a lowering of geopotential heights.
This lowering of heights will keep temperatures away from record
levels. However, southwesterly flow will allow warm air advection
(WAA) to continue and highs will be hot in the low 100s. Dry
weather is expected as most moisture remains to our east. Breezy
winds will remain. These hot, dry, and breezy conditions will
continue into the middle of the week.

An inverted trough will be pushed onshore from the Gulf of Mexico
in south-eastern Texas on Wednesday due to a large area of high
pressure in the southern US. This inverted trough will bring
onshore a large amount of moisture. The high pressure in the
southern US will steer this moisture plume to the region. Higher
elevations will start to be impacted late Wednesday with a chance
of thunderstorms. The lowlands will start experiencing effects on
Thursday. Winds will become southeasterly and PWATs will soar to
1.0 to 1.3 in across the region. Soundings show that the moisture
layer will be quite shallow with cloud ceilings as low as 1500ft
in the lowlands. A subsidence inversion will prevent convective
storms from forming through Friday, so rainfall will be stratiform
in nature. Cloudy conditions with drizzle are expected for
Thursday and Friday. QPFs will be low at less than 0.02 in for
the lowlands. Higher elevations will see heavier rain with
QPFs of up to 0.2 in. Temperatures will cool into the low 90s in
the lowlands due to extensive cloud cover.

The high over the southern US will set up
over the region over the weekend. High temperatures will warm
back up into the low 100s and winds will become light and variable.
This high pressure will trap lingering moisture in the region and
allow for convective storms to form. This chance of thunderstorms
will remain into early next week with the higher elevations having
a greater chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. SW
winds will remain breezy through the overnight hours at 6-12
knots with gusts to 16-22 knots. Winds relax by 12Z to 4-8 knots.
Winds increase by 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Elevated fire danger continues this evening with southwest winds
15 to 20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds peaking in the late afternoon
with Excellent smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Winds
will be a bit lighter on Tuesday with similar conditions
otherwise.

Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from
the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud
coverage Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be much
cooler those days under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, with
gusty and erratic outflow winds and possible new lightning starts.
Monsoon season well underway next week with continued daily storm
chances and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  75 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            99  67  96  66 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              102  67  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              101  65  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               78  52  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    99  66  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              90  60  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  101  62  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                98  62  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      101  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               103  65 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            105  67 101  66 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               95  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  103  69 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  66  97  65 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           99  75  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            99  63  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   101  65  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                100  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                99  66  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  90  58  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                88  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 86  54  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  90  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                95  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                98  60  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   94  57  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    98  55  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               92  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  93  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   98  61  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  98  62  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           96  60  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               90  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt