889
FXUS64 KEPZ 072121
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
321 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur over the area today
into tomorrow with strong winds being the main threat. Heat will
be the main threat mid week next week into the future with a long
duration heat event expected as we go into June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Isolated to scattered storms will be the main short term threat
over the area with SBCAPE values 500 to 1000 J/kg over our
northern counties and into the eastern portions of our area.
Severe threat will mainly stay over the lowlands with a strong
inverted V sounding and DCAPE values well above 1500 J/kg and
Dewpoint depressions around 60-70 degrees. We saw one 60mph gust
from a shower, so if any storms do make it into the lowlands form
Mexico there will be a severe wind threat that will include dust.
The best time for El Paso or Las Cruces will be around sunset for
a few hours.

Tomorrow will be a fairly similar pattern except shifted to the
east as a weak shortwave moves through the area. The main focus
for storms will be east of the Rio Grande Valley in the afternoon
and evening. NBM percentiles continue to show another hot day
tomorrow with the 75th percentile showing 105F, which has verified
well for the last week. This triggered us to extend the heat
advisory for the El Paso and lower valley through Saturday.

Sunday and Monday a shortwave trough aloft will push through the
area. This weakening of the ridge will allow for slightly cooler
temperatures and we may even struggle to get to 100F on Monday.
Models had depicted a backdoor cold front pushing through on
Monday, but the trend has been for that to stay east.

A significant heat event appears to start setting up Wednesday
into Thursday and will need to be monitored for trends as we go
into next week. Long term ensemble guidance has us above 105F for
an extended period of time and above 100F for as far as the model
goes out into July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected but thunderstorms are expected
areawide with each terminal having the chance to see a storm or
two this afternoon and evening. Biggest concerns with storms today
will be gusty and erratic outflow winds around thunderstorms.
Isolated strong gusts of 40-60MPH possible right in the vicinity
of the storm but will be less further away from the storm. In
addition, dust may be kicked around due to thunderstorms which
may cause reductions in visibilities. Wind speeds outside of
thunderstorms will feature light breezes in the afternoon out of
the south becoming calm this evening. All terminals have a chance
to see a storm now through late tonight. However, KELP and KLRU
could expect storms should begin to see storms around and after
00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The main threat for fire weather the next two days will be the
thunderstorm and dry lightning that could be associated with those
storms. These storms also have a good amount of dry air under them
so strong to severe winds are possible and have been seen by
storms over the Gila today. The outflows and gust fronts will be
the major threat for any wildfires or prescribed burns that are
going on. Overall winds will be light and RH values will remain
marginal outside side of Tuesday which could see elevated fire
conditions in the Gila.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 105  78 100 /  30  20  20  10
Sierra Blanca            68  96  71  94 /  20  30  30  10
Las Cruces               72 102  72  98 /  40  20  20  10
Alamogordo               68  99  66  96 /  30  20  20  20
Cloudcroft               54  75  53  72 /  40  30  20  40
Truth or Consequences    71  99  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
Silver City              66  89  64  87 /  20  20  20  30
Deming                   70  99  69  96 /  30  20  20  20
Lordsburg                68  96  66  94 /  20  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro       76 100  75  97 /  40  20  20  10
Dell City                67 101  68  99 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Hancock             68 102  70 100 /  30  20  20  10
Loma Linda               70  94  70  91 /  20  20  20  10
Fabens                   72 102  73 100 /  40  20  20  10
Santa Teresa             72  99  72  96 /  30  20  20  10
White Sands HQ           78  99  79  96 /  30  20  30  20
Jornada Range            67  99  66  96 /  30  20  30  20
Hatch                    67 100  68  97 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus                 76  98  74  97 /  40  20  20  10
Orogrande                71  99  69  95 /  20  20  20  20
Mayhill                  59  88  59  84 /  30  30  20  50
Mescalero                56  87  56  83 /  30  30  20  40
Timberon                 56  85  56  82 /  20  30  20  40
Winston                  59  89  62  85 /  20  30  20  40
Hillsboro                68  94  69  92 /  10  20  30  40
Spaceport                63  98  64  95 /  30  20  30  20
Lake Roberts             61  90  61  87 /  20  20  20  30
Hurley                   64  93  63  91 /  20  20  20  20
Cliff                    63  97  61  96 /  10  20  10  20
Mule Creek               66  92  66  90 /  10  20  10  20
Faywood                  68  92  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
Animas                   67  95  64  94 /  20  20  20  20
Hachita                  70  95  67  94 /  20  20  20  20
Antelope Wells           68  94  66  93 /  40  30  30  20
Cloverdale               67  89  64  88 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham