Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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892 FXUS64 KEPZ 180550 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1150 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Hot and dry weather will transition into cooler and wetter weather later in the week. A tropical system from the gulf of mexico will bring moisture which will give the region a chance of drizzle by the end of the week. Lingering moisture will allow for a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Currently, there is a trough situated in the Pacific Northwest, which is moving eastward. This trough will stay far north of the region, but will allow for a lowering of geopotential heights. This lowering of heights will keep temperatures away from record levels. However, southwesterly flow will allow warm air advection (WAA) to continue and highs will be hot in the low 100s. Dry weather is expected as most moisture remains to our east. Breezy winds will remain. These hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue into the middle of the week. An inverted trough will be pushed onshore from the Gulf of Mexico in south-eastern Texas on Wednesday due to a large area of high pressure in the southern US. This inverted trough will bring onshore a large amount of moisture. The high pressure in the southern US will steer this moisture plume to the region. Higher elevations will start to be impacted late Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms. The lowlands will start experiencing effects on Thursday. Winds will become southeasterly and PWATs will soar to 1.0 to 1.3 in across the region. Soundings show that the moisture layer will be quite shallow with cloud ceilings as low as 1500ft in the lowlands. A subsidence inversion will prevent convective storms from forming through Friday, so rainfall will be stratiform in nature. Cloudy conditions with drizzle are expected for Thursday and Friday. QPFs will be low at less than 0.02 in for the lowlands. Higher elevations will see heavier rain with QPFs of up to 0.2 in. Temperatures will cool into the low 90s in the lowlands due to extensive cloud cover. The high over the southern US will set up over the region over the weekend. High temperatures will warm back up into the low 100s and winds will become light and variable. This high pressure will trap lingering moisture in the region and allow for convective storms to form. This chance of thunderstorms will remain into early next week with the higher elevations having a greater chance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. SW winds will remain breezy through the overnight hours at 6-12 knots with gusts to 16-22 knots. Winds relax by 12Z to 4-8 knots. Winds increase by 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Elevated fire danger continues this evening with southwest winds 15 to 20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds peaking in the late afternoon with Excellent smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Winds will be a bit lighter on Tuesday with similar conditions otherwise. Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud coverage Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be much cooler those days under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, with gusty and erratic outflow winds and possible new lightning starts. Monsoon season well underway next week with continued daily storm chances and seasonably hot temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 104 75 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 99 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 102 67 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 101 65 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 78 52 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 99 66 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 90 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 101 62 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 98 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 101 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 103 65 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 105 67 101 66 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 95 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 103 69 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 100 66 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 99 75 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 99 63 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 101 65 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 100 67 98 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 99 66 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 90 58 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 88 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 86 54 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 90 53 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 95 62 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 98 60 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 94 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 98 55 96 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 92 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 93 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 98 61 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 98 62 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 96 60 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 90 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt