173
FXUS64 KEWX 061052
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
552 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

An upper level ridge builds over our area today into Friday bringing
a drier airmass aloft. With heating, this drier air should be able
to mix to the surface and allow high temperatures to warm back up
today and Friday across areas that saw "cooler" temperatures on
Wednesday. Expect well above normal high temperatures to continue.
Deeper moisture lingers over the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden
regions today where heat indices may flirt with Advisory level
criteria this afternoon. Will hold off on issuance as they will be
brief and not widespread. Drier air should mix more efficiently over
the Rio Grande Plains on Friday keeping heat indices below criteria.
With the moisture lingering over the Rio Grande Plains, cannot rule
out an isolated shower or storm or two later this afternoon into
early evening due to heating as indicated in some CAMS. However,
chances are too low to mention there with better chances over the
Serranias del Burro of Mexico where forcing by the mountains will
overcome increasing subsidence underneath the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A 591 to 592 decameter mid-level ridge remains positioned atop of
the state entering the long term period but will gradually begin to
weaken and slide southeastward from Sunday into the start of next
week. This is helped by a series of disturbances moving across the
central and northern CONUS. A front still looks to push southward
towards Central Texas sometime into and during Monday as well. The
latest GFS/ECMWF guidance is not quite as bullish regarding the
front to where it may struggle to advance across the entire region
before stalling. A northwesterly to northerly flow aloft should then
develop into and through the middle of next week as the area will
become sandwiched in-between a building ridge to the west and some
troughing to the east as an upper level disturbance or two could
approach portions of the northern Gulf coast.

Air temperatures stay hot through this weekend as afternoon highs
should top out in the mid to upper 90s for many and into the 100 to
103 degree range across our western and southwestern zones. Dew
points are the difference in keeping the heat levels from becoming
as oppressive as what we had observed earlier in the week. The dew
points should mix out efficiently to keep those peak heat indices in
the more typical summertime range of between 100 to 105 degrees.
Thus, heat products are not expected at this time through the
weekend. Temperatures then trend slightly downward into early next
week pending the influences from that approaching front. Expect
increased cloudiness and at least some low end rain chances (20 to
30 percent) into and through Monday. However, latest medium range
guidance, including the ensemble means, indicate that the better
signal for rain likely will focus farther north. Rain chances look
to generally decline during midweek but a stray opportunity could
potentially crop up at times with any residual outflow boundaries
and/or mesoscale features. The temperatures around midweek also
start to slowly climb back upwards as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

MVFR CIGs linger much of this morning at KDRT. Otherwise, VFR skies
prevail today through Friday. Light winds become E-SE 7 to 12 KTs
with mixing today, then decouple to light tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

        THU        FRI        SAT
       06/06      06/07      06/08
------------------------------------------------
AUS   103/2011   100/2022    99/2022
ATT   103/2022*  103/2022   102/1925
SAT   104/2022   104/2022   101/2022
DRT   110/2022   108/1974   107/2020

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  82 105  79 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  70  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            101  73 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  71  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04