401
FXUS62 KFFC 010600
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Afternoon spotty thunderstorms area-wide this afternoon, with
greatest PoPs along a weak frontal boundary moving out of NW GA
towards the SE. No widespread severe is expected at this time,
however thunderstorms could become strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. Drier air is present behind the
frontal boundary with PWATs <1.5". This will contrast what we have
seen this past week with PWATs >1.8". The frontal boundary will
likely stall near the ATL metro, meaning areas south of I20 will
remain soupy through the short term outlook. Scattered thunderstorms
return tomorrow, however these should generally remain along and
south of a line from CSG to MCN (in the moist air).

The main thing to watch for will be temperatures. Highs in the mid
to upper 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will see heat indices climb to
near 100 once again. Eastern and West Central GA will see heat
indices in excess of 105. Tomorrow, the hottest conditions will be in
Central GA near Columbus and Macon where heat indices of 103+ is
expected. Conditions will feel a bit cooler North of I20 where
dewpoints could be as low as the mid 60s. SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tuesday will be the last day in the post frontal airmass which will
be noticeably drier...with near climo max Ts on Tuesday which will be
supplanted by a warming trend and increased moisture through the
remainder of the week. 500mb ridge over the southern plains on
Tuesday will shift and center over the SE US by Wednesday while
surface ridge shifts off the east coast putting the region back into
a slight moisture advection regime. Pops, while non-zero, will be
noticeably lower and below climo through the 4th. Temps on the 4th
will rise into the mid 90s with dewpoints topping out in the upper
60s thus keeping heat indices around the 100 across the area and
below advisory thresholds...at least for now. Will need to keep on
eye on trends in the dewpoints the coming days as that will play a
bigger role in the index.

By late on the 4th into Friday, the pattern begins to break down as
Beryl will be located near the Yucatan along the southwestern
periphery of the SE US mid level ridge and shortwave energy dives SE
from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. The SE ridge begins
to fill as heights lower across the region allowing for an uptick
in diurnal convection going into the weekend. Weak boundary
approaches with upper midwest energy swinging through the the
north by Saturday and with no discernible capping, should see a
bit more diurnal coverage of storms through the weekend.

As for Beryl...still a bit of uncertainty in the track beyond the
Yucatan and there`s still a good bit of spread in the extended
due to models not handling the breakdown of the SE ridge with any
consistency. The trend is to have a break in the ridge over TX and
the western Gulf which may allow for the system or its remnants
to turn north but that would only assume it doesn`t stay south
into Central America which is also represented by a large chunk of
ensemble members. At this point, it does not appear to be direct
threat to our region more than increased moisture and precip
chances at the end of the extended IF it takes the northerly route
into the NW Gulf.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. However,
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may bring brief
periods of MVFR cigs and/or vsbys to both MCN and CSG. A few
showers are also possible this afternoon for some Atlanta metro
sites as well as AHN. Have included VCSH for that eventuality. NW
to N winds will become more northeasterly by late morning or early
afternoon. Eventually, winds will become easterly by this evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on timing of easterly component to wind and extent
of afternoon shower activity, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  67  90 /  30  10  20  20
Atlanta         72  86  71  90 /  20  20  10  30
Blairsville     63  82  63  86 /  20  10  10  30
Cartersville    70  89  69  91 /  10  10  10  30
Columbus        74  86  72  92 /  30  50  20  40
Gainesville     69  85  68  89 /  20  10  10  30
Macon           70  84  70  92 /  30  40  10  40
Rome            70  90  71  92 /  10  10   0  30
Peachtree City  70  86  69  91 /  20  20  10  30
Vidalia         72  85  73  92 /  60  60  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SEC