Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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135 FXUS63 KFGF 240311 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Starting to see more saturation between the bases of the clouds and the ground, resulting in more reports of accumulation. Adjusted POPs to reflect this change. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High-based showers continue to move across the area behind a trough. The accumulations with these showers continue to be paltry, with occasional sites reading a few hundredths of an inch. After these showers progress east, things should start to clear out. Forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Upper trough digging into the Dakotas this afternoon will continue into MN tonight, eventually amplifying over the upper midwest tomorrow. The passage of the surface trough axis this afternoon and evening will bring a few rain showers, with radar returns already over eastern and central ND. MU CAPE is less than 250 J/kg so even any thunder is unlikely, and there is no shear to speak of. The only reports have been a few hundredths of an inch of rain, so impacts are very minimal as the trough swings through this evening and skies begin to clear out later tonight. Upper ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward into the Plains by mid-weak, eventually setting up a blocking pattern with high heights across the Plains into the Great Lakes, jet over Canada, and cut off low well to our south. This pattern will keep it dry and temperatures will return to well above late September averages. Could push above the 80 mark again in some spots, but will depend on clouds and exactly how much the ridge builds over the central CONUS. Next chance for precipitation will be when the blocking pattern breaks down and the next upper trough starts to move into the Dakotas on Monday. However, fairly high uncertainty in the details as the ridge breaks down will hold off on any messaging for now. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Winds will shift to westerly overnight, and eventually northwesterly as the morning continues Tuesday. Winds will be on the lighter side, around 10 knots or less, and ceilings will remain in VFR territory, with the exception of a period around BJI this morning (12 - 15z). Winds will drop to light and variable into early Wednesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...AH