Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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020 FXUS63 KFGF 241729 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Getting a bit more cloud cover in the east than expected so bumped up sky grids a bit. Some cumulus bubbling up, but at this point it seems like not enough for showers, so will keep any mention of sprinkles or rain showers out at this point and continue to monitor. Otherwise quiet with temps in the 60s. UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 There is some low level clouds developing in West Central Minnesota where there were showers early this morning. The skies will gradually clear through the day as the trough moves out of the Northern Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...Synopsis... An upper level trough moves through the Northern Plains and dives southeast into the central plains and then moving into the Appalachian territories. This creates an amplified ridging pattern over the Northern Plains for the remainder of the week giving us above average temperatures starting Wednesday. The upper level trough departs today and starts to dive southeast through Minnesota and cuts off from the flow over the Central Plains. This creates a blocking pattern for the US and leaves the Northern Plains in an amplified ridging pattern. Starting Wednesday, warm temperatures will start to advect into the region giving us above normal temperatures. With the area of high pressure over us (the amplified ridge)we will likely get pretty cool at night due to clearer skies and efficient cooling. However, looking at the ensembles dewpoint dont look to get cold enough for frost development. With the cutoff Low to our southeast our moisture feed that common with a ridging pattern will probably be disrupted leaving us pretty dry for the next few days. With the potential for some breezy winds, fire weather concerns will be something to monitoring for the rest of the week. Especially since the models already have the RH values in the 30`s and 40`s through Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly VFR conditions although some MVFR cumulus developed over KBJI just as the 18Z TAFs were going out. Think they will hang around for a few hours before scattering out and going VFR like the rest of the TAF sites. Light west to northwest winds around 8 to 11 kts will continue through sunset, then become light and variable after 00Z. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM/JR DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...JR