Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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404 FXUS65 KFGZ 070325 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 825 PM MST Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the week. Isolated showers/thunderstorms across the higher terrain through the weekend will primarily impact eastern Arizona. Afternoon highs will gradually cool Saturday and Sunday before another warming trend returns next week. && .UPDATE...After several locations in northern Arizona broke high temperatures records for the day, the cooler evening is a welcome relief. A few flashes of lightning occurred in the area, but overall, thunderstorm activity was minimal. Most of the cumulus clouds have dissipated this evening as high clouds stream northward into the central portion of the state. These clouds will help keep temperatures from cooling too much despite the dry conditions. Additionally, smoke and haze from the Bravo Fire south of Bellemont will impact air quality for portions of western Flagstaff. However, the majority of the smoke is expected to drain southward towards West Fork Oak Creek. Another hot day is in the forecast tomorrow as southwest winds strengthen marginally. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM MST Friday. Only minor updates made this evening with the forecast on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /521 PM MST/...Hot weather will continue through the end of the week as high pressure sits just off to the east and low pressure is to the southwest. This set up is allowing for a little bit of moisture to make it into the region but not enough to call it the monsoon. The moisture flow is originating from Mexico and off towards the Gulf of Mexico. With this influx of moisture we are seeing good cumulus cloud development along the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, While Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and off towards the Grand Canyon and Kaibab Plateau. The hindrance here is that the low levels are quite dry so any clouds that manage to develop into storms will drop precipitation that largely evaporates before it reaches the surface. There is a risk for some isolate thunderstorms this afternoon with dry lightning being the main hazard. A new fire in the Bellemont area (Bravo Fire) is producing a good amount of smoke that will settle down to the surface this evening and overnight. With the heat, we know many like to open windows for the cooler night air but tonight it might be best to avoid opening the windows due to smoke. Areas around Bellemont may see some smoke and haze through the night, as well. The high starts to push to the east on Friday with the ridge breaking down across the southwest. This will be the start of slight cooldown across our area. Friday will still be hot, especially in the Grand Canyon, Glen and Marble Canyons, and the lower elevations of Yavapai County. No changes to the heat headlines were made. The heat starts to ease a bit on Saturday and Sunday as the low off to the southwest starts to move northward and into southern Arizona. Temperatures will be closer to normal as we head through Sunday. Continued isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms across far eastern Arizona (mainly towards the White Mountains). Heading into the new week, we will once again see high pressure building in from the southeast. This will bring hot temperatures back into the region with the possibility for heat headlines. Models are indicating that a strong area of low pressure will develop off the southern California coast early in the week and then tracks into the Desert Southwest. Something to keep an eye on as this has the potential to bring us better chances for some showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...Friday 07/00Z through Saturday 08/00Z...Look for mainly VFR conditions with some smoke and potential MVFR conditions near KFLG. Look for another round of isolated showers/thunderstorms after 20Z with gusty and erratic winds possible. Light winds tonight becoming southwest at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts by Friday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/00Z through Monday 10/00Z...VFR conditions are expected with ongoing afternoon (18Z-02Z) isolated high-based showers/thunderstorms, primarily over eastern Arizona. Light nighttime winds but with afternoon winds southwest at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts continuing. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Hot and mainly dry weather. Look for breezy southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, gusting near 25 mph each afternoon. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms are possible, primarily for eastern Arizona. Storm related hazards include dry lightning and erratic, gusty winds. Wetting rains are unlikely. Afternoon RH values 5-10% on Friday increase to 7-15% on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Look for southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with afternoon RH values ranging from 10-20 percent. Isolated, high- based thunderstorms will continue for the eastern zones. Seasonable temperatures are forecast. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Mazon/Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff