392
FXUS65 KFGZ 210526
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1026 PM MST Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds will diminish this evening, with a few
sprinkles or isolated light showers possible over eastern Arizona.
Expect dry, breezy, and mild weather through the rest of the week
with near normal temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...A few localized areas are still seeing elevated winds
this evening, but overall, calmer conditions are slowly
returning. As a result, the Wind Advisory expired at the 7 PM
MST/8 PM MDT this evening. Similarly, the Red Flag Warning expired
at the same time due to conditions dropping below the product
criteria.

The rest of the week will be full of near-normal temperatures,
breezy winds, and mostly sunny conditions. The previous
discussion/forecast remains largely on track, so no updates were
made other than the expiration of both products.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /434 PM MST/...Very windy across the northland today, particularly
in the corridor from Two Guns to Winslow where gusts in excess of
60mph were recorded this afternoon. Some very light precipitation
is moving through Gila, southern Coconino and Navajo Counties,
but only a hundredth or two have been recorded so far and don`t
expect meaningful accumulations at this time. The Red Flag Warning
and Wind Advisory will stay in effect into this evening.

The axis of the trough responsible for the strong winds and light
showers will pass through Arizona this evening, with decreasing
clouds and lighter winds overnight. With very dry air in place,
the temperatures have the potential to get quite cold tonight (and
Tuesday night) with the light winds, and we`re likely to see
freezing temperatures in a couple of our high-elevation cold
spots.

The rest of the week will be dominated by low-amplitude troughing
or nearly featureless zonal flow. Expect dry, breezy weather with
seasonable temperatures through Friday. We`ll be keeping our eye
on Friday and Saturday where the winds may be strong enough to
bring critical fire weather conditions back into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z...VFR with
winds less than 10 kts. Increasing SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts after 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...VFR with SW-W
winds 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Very dry conditions will
continue through Wednesday with southwest winds 10-20 mph. Minimum
RH values 5-15 percent each afternoon with decent overnight
recoveries.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue through the rest
of the week. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph each
day. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/BAK
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff